Knicks by a whisker
The Pistons are for real
David Thorpe previews the most interesting series of the first round: Bucks or Pacers? Clippers or Nuggets?
BY DAVID THORPE
On paper, this three vs. six matchup seems a bit lopsided. Detroit has not been a relevant team in forever, while the Knicks entered the season thinking about 55+ wins and a shot at the title.
Given that the postseason heavily favors experience over the course of a series, the Knicks look like the obvious choice.
But this one’s going to be a nail-biter.
The Knicks struggled to beat good teams late in the season. As in, they won one of their final 10 games against tough competition. One of those nine losses was to the Pistons. Yes, Jalen Brunson missed a month of games, March 6 until April 6. He’s won just one game total since returning, against the less-than-tough Phoenix Suns. Throw in an OT loss to Boston, plus losses to the Cavs, Lakers, and Warriors (the last two in his final games before the injury), then consider Brunson hasn’t played in a win against a good team since early February in Indiana (missing Myles Turner), and you can see why I think it won’t be easy.
TrueHoop readers know we have concerns about how much Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau plays his key players all season. Last year the Pacers nearly dropped Game 3 in the second round to go down 0-3, but pulled the game out and ended up winning four of five, including a blowout Game 7 in the Garden. The Knicks were injured and exhausted. This year it’s possible those issues are already present–since the All-Star break the Knicks are 15-13 with a positive net rating of .3. Meanwhile, Detroit is 15-12 with a +4.9 net rating.
These are two even teams right now.
In close battles, I tend to favor the better coached team and/or the team with the best player. I don’t see an advantage on the coaching front. And while Brunson is the most famous player in the series, Cade Cunningham is the series’ best player. His surge into All-NBA contention is story of Detroit’s season. Elite on offense, very good on defense, he’s every bit the player the Pistons hoped he would be when they picked him first overall.
When Brunson and Cunningham guard each other, it’s a big advantage for the Pistons. Cade overpowers and bullies Brunson. He averaged 31 points a game in the four regular season matchups, draining shots from all over. Just as a year ago, after Brunson was on fire in the first few games against the Pacers, Indy shaded him a lot more before and after he got his touch and forced the other players to beat them, so too will the Knicks do that in this series when Cade gets cooking. Probably anyway; sometimes I think Thibs is stubborn and doesn’t want to change plans. Plus, Detroit has shooters (hello Malik Beasley!).
Detroit has done the obvious, working to get shooters around their star. But so have the Knicks. I think it’s a big reason why they went after KAT, a great offensive complement to Brunson and teams that like to double. The Pistons will have a terrible time controlling New York's big man, who is so good at bull rushes and shot fake attacks while playing off that sweet shot of his. The Pistons counter with bully ball tactics, and size inside, but it comes at a price. Detroit fouls too often and, as part of their identity change, they get too emotional in efforts to play that bully ball style. Who led the league in personal fouls these final 15 games? Motown, fourth most fouls for the season. Drawing fouls is not a strength of the Knicks, who took the 23rd most free throws on the year. But Thibodeau is smart and has time to prepare, I would be shocked if the Knicks aren’t working right now on ways to get to the line a ton, and to put the Pistons’ bigs on the bench.
New York’s biggest advantage is experience and emotional maturity. The Pistons counter with energy, brashness, and Cade freakin’ Cunningham. At times, I suspect, Detroit will struggle to manage their emotions, which can carry a devastating cost. I also suspect the Pistons will find ways to win games too. Indy pulled off the six over three upset a season ago, and I think Detroit could do the same if the Knicks don’t have enough legs to match the Pistons athleticism. But they will have had a week's rest before Game 1, which could be all the medicine they need. This series could go seven, with the Knicks being slight favorites.
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What happened to the podcast? The last one I see is the one featuring 'Ballistic'
thibs has always done this. You think maybe he'd fucking learn. Knicks look exhausted. That said..... its something of an overstatement that cade is the best player in the series. No, thats brunson IMHO. I think people are over enthusiastic about this piston team. I think the interior defense of detroit will be tested. Thibs may be a weirdo about playing time, but he's a good strategist.- And KAT should have a big series. Duren cant handle him. Beef Stew probably gets ejected, and that leaves Tobias Harris. Also this is new territory for the pistons, so I say give them a year. Knicks might sweep