The betting markets on the NBA playoffs’ first round

Excitement around Luka’s Mavs, Nets vs. Celtics

TrueHoop’s NBA playoff preview: The East. The West. The Raptors vs. 76ers. The play-in winners. The betting markets. The podcast.

BY JEFF FOGLE

All through the playoffs, Jeff Fogle is delivering TrueHoop subscribers insight from the betting markets. This is not the same as picks—we have no deals with casinos. Instead, we’re mining the markets for the best possible insight. Here’s an introduction to the “sum of all models.” Below is Jeff’s insight market insight into:

• Mavericks vs. Jazz

• Wolves vs. Grizzlies

• 76ers vs. Raptors

• Warriors vs. Nuggets

• Celtics vs. Nets

• Bulls vs. Bucks

The star of the Mavericks strained his calf Sunday night. It’s an injury that shifted the betting markets mightily. TIM HEITMAN/GETTY IMAGES

Sportsbooks are faced with a challenge pricing the Mavericks. They will enter the playoffs with or without star scorer Luka Doncic, who suffered a calf strain Sunday night. It’s no easy task:

• Late-season assessments projected the Mavericks as a slight favorite in home games vs. the Jazz, and as a slight favorite to win their series against the Jazz. 

• With Doncic expected to miss the series opener (at the very least), the Jazz are now projected as almost 67 percent favorites to win Saturday and 75 percent to win the series. 

What will happen if Doncic is cleared to play in a game-time decision? What if he misses the opener, but is able to come back near full strength for Game 2 Monday night? Pricing could become very volatile.

Let’s run market data for Jazz/Mavericks and the other known first-round matchups for “wisdom of the informed crowd” predictions.

Series: Jazz 75% (-300), Mavericks 30.3% (+230), Game 1: Jazz 65.9% (-193), Mavericks 38.5% (+160) Per-game point spreads and money lines are from Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas. Series odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Why are the Jazz a much bigger favorite to win the series than Game 1? If Utah is -193 to win a game in Dallas, it will be an even bigger favorite to win in each of three home games. That makes for a very one-sided series without Doncic. 

Luka’s triumphant return would quickly launch prices back toward equilibrium. 

A reminder that market percentage equivalents add up to more than 100 percent, because the house edge sportsbooks incorporate to grind out a profit. Here’s a quick explanation of how this works.

Series: Grizzlies 76.7% (-330) Timberwolves (27.8%) +260 Game 1: Grizzlies 71.4% (-250), Timberwolves 32.5% (+208) Per-game point spreads and money lines are from Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas. Series odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Markets greatly underestimated the Grizzlies this season.