James Harden is a Cavalier and it might be great

How does it work?

Professor Harden will do a lot for Cavalier big men Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, and Thomas Bryant. MELISSA TAMEZ/ICON SPORTSWIRE via GETTY IMAGES

Please don’t think that a bunch of NBA names in the Epstein files has kept our TrueHoop team from spending days obsessing over the NBA trade deadline. Soon we’ll have reactions to all the big moves.

But the most interesting one, from David Thorpe’s point of view, is James Harden as a Cleveland Cavalier. Is that … good? I asked David all about it.

Did the trade deadline affect this year’s title odds at all?

I’m intrigued with Cleveland. They moved De’Andre Hunter because he wasn’t outplaying Jaylon Tyson. I don’t know if he’ll be any better than De’Andre in the playoffs. But that’s why they did it.

A year ago, De’Andre was really good.

Really good. He was injured some, and that’s a factor. When they lost to Indiana in last year’s playoffs, Darius Garland wasn’t the only one hurt. Hunter missed, I think one game, and so did Evan Mobley. (Henry note: David just says this stuff off the cuff. I google it, and he’s right.) As we’ve written about Cavs coach Kenny Atkinson, Kenny wants athleticism and he wants mental toughness.

James Harden, we know, doesn’t solve either of those problems.

But, I have insight into Team Harden. Harden is very excited about this. He does want to win. He does want to change the narrative about him. And there’s reason to believe he can have a special effect on the Cavs bigs, especially Evan Mobley. To understand that, just look how Ivica Zubac’s game changed when Harden arrived on the Clippers. As we discussed at the time, Harden stayed late to work with Zubac in the pick and roll, and it was highly effective–Cleaning the Glass says that Zubac was a 99th percentile scorer from the mid-range (shooting 63 percent on 2-pointers not at the rim) in Harden’s first year as a Clipper.

In Cleveland, we’ve got Mobley and Jarrett Allen, and now we’re and we’ve got the gravity of Donovan Mitchell (like they had the gravity of Kawhi Leonard in Los Angeles). Donovan’s more available than Kawhi, different player, but now we have two guys who can benefit from a pick-and-roll surgeon like James Harden.

They have a coach, Kenny Atkinson, who can be really good for James. I don’t know that James will listen. I don’t know that he’ll be excited about Kenny, but he should be. Kenny’s a smart, curious guy. People who know him well say, including you and I, both know he’s a fun guy and he’s a straight shooter. He’s close with Mike D’Antoni, who is clearly the Harden whisperer. So I think that there’s real opportunity there for Cleveland to get more out of James than what people probably expect.

And between those two bigs and Donovan, I think James is in a really good spot. No one’s gonna say Harden’s record in the playoffs is amazing. But both Harden and Donovan Mitchell have put together a litany of phenomenal playoff games (and they’ve had some bad games too, especially James), but, I mean, Cleveland didn’t go backwards. They move forward. How much forwards? You know, a lot depends on what they get more out of Evan and Jarrett.

I’m confused. How is it that James Harden, at age 36, in a much more athletic NBA, has incredible plus/minus numbers? (In actual EPM, Harden’s a top 25 NBA player right now, ahead of Jalen Brunson, both Thompson twins, Deni Avdija, etc.) He’s not very fast. He doesn’t really jump. He’s not scoring a million points. How is he so effective with his limited athletic tool set?

We all like to talk about how this or that player “knows how to play,” right?

Sometimes I like to talk about the Pacers’ Johnny Furphy. He knows how to play, more or less, for a 20-year-old Australian guy, who didn’t exactly grow up at Montverde Academy learning the modern NBA basketball system. He just has a good feel for when to cut, when to screen, when to pass, when to race–even though he’s not particularly skilled at all.

Let’s say Furphy is at the bottom of the list, among NBA players who know how to play. Because there are plenty of guys who don’t know how to play in the NBA.

What percentage NBA players know how to play?

Yeah, I mean, it’s not much more than 50 percent. I think it’s fair to say half the league will know how to play. Now, there’s going to be a percentage of players who will learn how to play. So if you take that, well, then, Furphy’s on the bottom of the “knows how to play” chart.

At the very top is a collection of players that includes LeBron and James Harden. They are like Einstein would have been at a physics convention, or Mozart at a meeting of composers. There is an economy of movement that doesn’t just come from lack of mobility. It comes from a total understanding of what’s required. He is not making many false steps. It’s not just movement with the ball and without the ball, it’s also what he can do with the ball, when to pass, where to pass, how to pass.

The way the league is reffed now, defenders can’t touch you with their hands, but they can abuse you otherwise. I teach defenders to keep hands wide and high. Get them wide, get them high, which means their hands are off the player they are guarding. One of the benefits of that is you get more deflections. So on offense, you have to know how to deliver the ball where it goes through a forest of more active hands in passing lanes than ever before, and Harden just knows how to do all of that.

It just seemed like the game that has more chaos with all the blur ball and everything we’ve been talking about and maybe, which I had wrongly anticipated would really hurt a slow guy, but maybe actually, chaos favors people who can read the floor better and never be confused or sped up, right? He’s never bewildered by what’s happening on the floor.

That’s a fantastic way of putting it. I have talked about this on our podcasts before. He’s like Tom Brady must have been in huddles late in his career. What defensive wrinkle hasn’t Harden seen? It’s unbelievable. There are issues, to be clear. He can’t shoot right now, in January: 39 percent from the field, 30 percent from 3. He’s not shooting well at all–and yet, he averaged 24 points a game on 18 shots, because he got to the free throw line eight times a game and made 93 percent of those.

And how does he not get roasted on defense?

The Clippers did a good job hiding him. As much as possible, you want him assigned to non-drivers–whether that’s a wing, a guard, or a big. He’s very hard to post up. He’s got a bit of a fire hydrant build. Guys like Jameer Nelson and Kyle Lowry–you weren’t posting them up. Harden’s like that, but in a much taller 6-5 body.

Looking ahead to the playoffs, the Cavs could get into trouble against the Pistons. Detroit would be wrong to try to back Harden down with Jalen Duren or Isaiah Stewart. But they would not be wrong to get those guys in a Harden matchup and then shoot the ball as fast as possible. Bigger men than Harden have real trouble keeping those guys off the glass. That’s a problem that the Cavs know they have going into a game against the Pistons, who are now their big rivals in the East.

But I think it’s an important point you make just about how’s he doing this? Donovan is going to have more gravity than Kawhi did. Much more dynamic. I think James will get more open shots than he has in quite some time. And I also think the vibe in LA has been bad all year. A friend of mine spoke to me about what Ivica Zubac said after being traded away from the Clippers. I can’t quote it, but let’s just say he acknowledged the chaos the team was feeling.

That’s Pablo Torre’s fault.

Right, yeah. So I don’t know James. I’ve never talked to him, but I think that, I mean, let’s face it, he’s not going to an LA equivalent. This is Cleveland in the wintertime. Now I’m sure the spring is lovely in Cleveland. I have people I’m very close with who were born in Cleveland, and they love their town.

They left, though.

They live in Florida, yes. I’m sure it’s lovely in the spring, and I love the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame there. But basketball is everything right now for James. This is really a test for him. You’ve said the right things, and you seem excited about going to Cleveland. You made this happen because had you not waived your trade kicker it wouldn’t have happened. All right, so are you really that serious about winning? This is going to be a test.

If I ran the Cavs, I would have a very frank discussion with James. There’s two things I would say. The first thing I would say is, let’s be honest, you’re a first-ballot Hall of Famer, no question. But there’s also always going to be a playoff problem. You never made the Finals as a starter. Only one as a backup. So mostly it’s been a giant disappointment in the playoffs. Right? I would be very upfront. So whatever we can do to solve that issue, we are down for it.

The second thing I would do, if I was running that team as a head coach or an executive is, I would tell him I want one lunch or dinner a week with Donovan Mitchell for the rest of the season.

Kenny, Donovan, and James at the table?

Yes. And it can be Professor Harden. We’ll record it and mine it for ideas about how we’re going to win. Talk to us about what you’re feeling and what you’re seeing out there and what you think is coming. And there’s no bad ideas. It’s a pivot to the NBA TV video that we saw a few years ago, where you saw Doc Rivers talking to James, and that was the point. It was just Doc Rivers talking to James, and I told you then I thought it should be Doc listening to James.

Kenny is uniquely able to be a good listener, and wants to hear what James has to say. But also I would hold James accountable. We’re meeting once a week, and like Tom Hanks says, show up with ideas. Have your notes ready. I would really challenge James to do that.

Donovan’s our best player. He’s better than you. James, now he’s more valuable than you. His metrics show it. But he’s not above listening. He’s really a unique guy. Donovan is not a diva. He’s not someone that thinks he invented basketball. He’s an inclusive star. I’ve had teammates and agents who don’t represent Donovan, but represent some of his teammates say to me, I love that guy. And so I want him at the table. Because I think not only can you learn from James, but I think he can tell James, well, here’s what I’m dealing with. So I like those guys owning it together.

How should Donovan feel about this trade?

I think he should feel like, “okay, they’re trying to make me happy so I stay here.” James is a much more reliable a partner than Darius, because of the injuries. And they kept Mobley. They could have put together a very attractive trade for Giannis, but after that it wouldn’t exactly be Donovan’s team anymore. So it’s Donovan’s team, and potentially it’s better.

If you’re Donovan, what do you need? You need legit bigs, because you have some defensive liabilities. Well, they got two of those guys. You need guys who can be versatile. Mobley is certainly versatile. You got a guy that can quarterback and get shots for you. Opponents can’t put a defensive stiff, guarding Harden, right? That’s the damn story. He’ll live on the line.

So Donovan should look at it as okay, this isn’t bad as long as this guy’s willing to be my Robin, so to speak, which he certainly was next to Kawhi. The Clippers won 17 of 20 games not long ago. And remember, there will be games, maybe even a series or two, where Harden is their best scorer because of how defenses defend Donovan. If you watched the Pacers run Cleveland out of the arena last May, you saw Tyrese Haliburton often be the third best player on his team. The Cavs took him out of many possessions, and Andrew Nembhard and Pascal Siakam killed them. Did it ever look like Haliburton cared? Not remotely. I suspect it will be the same with Donovan, and Mobley as well.

In Donovan’s mind, Cleveland’s all in on making me happy. We have some young guys now. The Pacers from a year ago would struggle to exhaust this Cavs team out. Craig Porter Jr. is 25. Jaylon Tyson is 23. I like newly acquired Keon Ellis, who is 26. He fell off a cliff this year in Sacramento, but it’s Sacramento, and he still played really good defense. When I visited my son (Max Thorpe was an assistant under Nate Oats) in Alabama, I got a chance to speak to Alabama’s team and hang out with the coaches for a few days. And the reverence in that room, when discussing Keon Ellis was strong.

That’s so cool. What’d they say?

Just all in on doing what it takes to help win games. Locked in defensively. Really worked on his shot, and in 80 games last season he shot 43.3 percent from 3. He’s exactly what the Cavs need to solve problems–just more defensive guys who can play well next to both Harden and Donovan.

This gets to what was my next question, which is: we made, I don’t know how many TrueHoop posts out of Kenny Atkinson’s press conferences after losing to the Pacers. It sounded like he wanted to get super fast and athletic. And they got James Harden.

They added Porter, Tyson, Ellis. They check that box.

I hope Dennis Schroeder never plays. I don’t think he is a fit at all. I would love to see them buy him out.

I watched Game 6 in Indiana last year against the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals, where Thomas Bryant scored 11 points in the blink of an eye and they won the game, he was a mainstay off their bench. And he’s the backup center for the Cavs. He’s playing well. He’s been solid offensively, 36 percent from 3, really finishes at the rim at an elite level (94th percentile), and he’s blocking shots. He’s getting on the glass. He plays hard as hell. That’s what Kenny wants.

And he’s just smiling the entire time.

He’s the best teammate. Watch a game where Thomas Bryant’s on the bench, he’s the first guy off the bench at a timeout he just brings so much joy to what he’s doing. That’s good for the Cavs locker room. James is going to see that. In Cleveland, it’s just basketball. And so you better get a bunch of guys that love to compete.

I’m under the impression that the Cavs struggle to score when Donovan’s out of the game. (On Cleaning the Glass, Cavaliers’ offense is 4.9 points per 100 possessions worse without Mitchell.) But now I’m thinking ooh maybe James Harden should stay after practice with Thomas Bryant as well, right? Maybe the Cavs’ non-Mitchell offense just got a lot better?

Oh yeah, work with all the bigs. He did that in LA. And don’t forget Jarrett Allen, who is only 27. Jarett has been really good this year. James Harden’s only gonna make Allen and Bryant better.

The bottom line is, Cleveland’s better. And don’t forget, Sam Merrill, let’s look up how he’s shooting this year. Oh yeah. He’s struggling. This year, he’s only at 46 percent from 3.

He’s just ridiculous.

They’ve got lots of shooters, and they’ve got some athletes. They’ve added Ellis, who’s an athlete now they have this, you know, high-level thinker playmaker, who also helps through some of the Donovan Mitchell rest minutes.

And: Donovan Mitchell this year is at 85 percent from the line, and here’s why that matters. They’re going to be in the bonus more. I always remember Daryl Morey told me he got Kevin Martin, because he drew a lot of fouls, at a time when Yao Ming was the best offensive player in the league when the team was in the bonus.

Well, James Harden’s at 93 percent from the line and he’s one of the best guys in the league at getting fouled. And Donovan Mitchell’s at 85 percent. And so the play where someone fouls Donovan with six minutes left in the first or third quarters when the starters have been in, that used to be side out of bounds? Now Donovan’s shooting free throws.

And Donovan will have a worse defender than he would have otherwise had in many cases, and sometimes that guy will have shorter minutes because he’s in foul trouble.

You’re gonna have to make some choices now when you play the Cavs. Darius Garland could cook you, but not quite like James Harden. Where do you put your best defender?

Assuming this goes well, everyone’s healthy, would you pick the Cavs to beat the Knicks in the East? The Celtics? The Pistons?

Forced to pick now, before seeing any of these teams play, I think it’s really close. I’d pick Cleveland over almost everyone but I have to think about the Pistons.

Ausar Thompson is a problem for Cleveland. But he’s a problem for Detroit too, he just can’t shoot it at all. And they’re inexperienced. I happen to think experience matters less in the regular season and more in the postseason. Cleveland’s got a ton of experience.

It wasn’t too long ago where, I mean, I was worried about Kenny getting fired. It tells you all you need to know about how the team is doing. They’re 11-4 in their last 15 games, and that’s without Harden.

Would I pick the Cavs over the Pistons in the Eastern Conference finals right now? Maybe. Soon we’ll publish a post outlining who is on the championship bus, and I’ll dig in deeper for that.

In the middle of the turmoil of all these trades, you texted me Oh, looks like LeBron is going to Cleveland next year.

Totally a gut feel that I had. It just seems to make a lot of sense that he’s such a committed Clevelander. I did not watch, live, the starters being announced when the Lakers were in Cleveland. They made a big deal and he cried pretty good. Listen, people can accuse LeBron of a million different things, and have. You can call him disingenuous. But he’s done a hell of a thing for Cleveland. I think he’s done a lot for Cleveland as a human being and as a rich guy. Now his Hollywood business will have to be on hold for a year, and his daughter is still living at home. Moving a child is always, you know, there’s always some potential drama there. But I just, it just seems to make sense to me that he does the Kareem tour in a Cleveland jersey.

And if the Cavs do well in the playoffs and they don’t want to move someone to make room for LeBron, well maybe he’s a backup. Between him and Harden, brilliant brains on the court, with a super dynamic shooting guard at the top of his game in Donovan Mitchell.

I don’t think LeBron plays the three anymore, so he’s gonna have to simply be a big because that’s really where they still got to solve that issue. Maybe Jaylon Tyson is the three, or Max Strus when he’s back from his foot injury. LeBron’s going to play somewhere, I’d bet, and I just have a gut feeling it’s Cleveland.

When you texted me, I’d seen almost nobody say that. And then suddenly I’ve seen that suggestion all over.

I don’t think the Lakers will buy him out. I think he’s in LA for the year. And then it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if the Lakers move on from him, build around Luka and he wraps up as a Clevelander. What a hell of a gift for the Cavaliers. It’s a cool thing for your franchise.

There’s a lot to manage for Kenny.

For sure. I think you’re the one who said to me, maybe Ty Lue comes in and takes that job. I’m not going to speculate. I have no idea. I happen to think both are great coaches. So I’m a fan of both, for sure. I didn’t even mention, all the Clippers drama this year touched Ty Lue, too. It’s just a lot of drama and stress. And in Cleveland, this can be about basketball and making sure you stay warm.

In the building with a covered walkway to the casino.

Can’t forget that you’re right about that.

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