Five reasons the Spurs won't sweep
The Blazers are better than their record
I’m not crazy. I know the Blazers can lose to the Spurs. They just did, on April 8—by 11 points. Victor Wembanyama didn’t play against the Blazers even a single minute this season, and so of course the Spurs will be far better this coming Sunday than they were last Wednesday.
They are a 61-win team and the Vegas favorites, all for good reason. But they’re not going to sweep because the Blazers are pretty good. A few days ago, I predicted that, against the odds, the Blazers would make the playoffs, and Portland instantly made me look smart by winning a nail biter in Phoenix Tuesday night. That article contains the core rationale for my pick, which builds heavily around the idea that in the last part of the season Portland has had one of the NBA’s best defenses, starring Donovan Clingan and a collection of defenders who are high in defensive estimated plus-minus like Matisse Thybulle (99th percentile), Jrue Holiday (94th), Toumani Camara (91st), and Kris Murray (90th).
I wouldn’t be writing this except that I just read some respected insiders predicting that the Blazers will lose to the Spurs in a sweep. I think the Blazer are better than that, for five reasons:
Improved shooting
Any reasonable season preview noted that the Blazers lacked deadeye shooters. And sure enough, they finished the regular season third-worst in the league at 34 percent.
That’s a special bummer. On offense, the Blazers are only so-so … but in a particular way. They drive the ball into the paint with ease, draw a mountain of fouls, and kick out for a ton of 3s. In other words, they’re doing the work to find good looks from 3 at volume. They have an offense that’s terrible or wonderful, depending on whether or not those 3s fall.
But watching Portland play lately, it seems this team’s 3-point shooting might be improving in ways that aren’t just noise. On Basketball-Reference I learned that in 17 of Portland’s 82 games, they made better than 40 percent of their 3s as a team. They were 14-3 in those games, many of which came late in the season. There are various reasons this might not be a case of randomness.
Matisse Thybulle over the last two seasons: 41 percent. Owing to injuries, his season began in earnest in late February.
Jerami Grant, who made 39 percent on high volume all season, just returned from injury and hit four of his eight 3s in Phoenix.
Toumani Camara is a career 37 percent 3-point shooter, but his month-by-month average since December has been 38, 38, 38, 38, and 43 percent.
Scoot Henderson is a career 34 percent 3-point shooter. But evidently he had some time while rehabbing his hamstring to work on his shot, and since the beginning of March, Scoot has made 46 of 115 3s, which maths out at 40 percent.
When the Blazers drafted Donovan Clingan they told him they thought he could develop into an NBA 3-point shooter, which looked silly when he made 29 percent his rookie year. He told reporters that he and Robert Williams III have a 3-point shooting competition every day; loser buys Chipotle. Over the last five months, Clingan has made 70 of 194 3s. That’s 36 percent … and maybe enough to lure Victor Wembanyama to play defense out there, which opens the lane for Avdija.
Is Scoot suddenly an elite defender?
The other day I wrote about the Blazers’ absurd collection of elite defenders. In the advanced stats, Scoot Henderson’s a little below average on the season. But in those same stats, he has been improving. To the naked eye, he’s a different player lately. Part of it might be that Scoot’s a fully empowered, fresh-as-a-daisy mega athlete playing against tired guys. Effective!
Many Blazers are oddly fresh
In Second Spectrum data years ago, I noticed that typical NBA players are fastest and most explosive in the preseason, and then get systematically worn down over the 82 games—which is likely why Kon Knueppel looked jaundiced and lost against the Heat and missed all six of his 3-pointers.
Meanwhile, Jerami Grant exploded off the floor to devour a crunch-time Jalen Green layup, stripped the ball on the Suns’ final possession, and hit two tough late 3s.
If Grant looked fresh it’s because he was. Grant has played fewer than 1,700 minutes this season. (Kon played more than 2,500, Amen Thompson led the league with almost 3,000). Toumani Camara and Deni Avdija have logged plenty of time on the court, but a huge number of Blazers are arriving at the postseason having spent mad time on the bench.
Matisse Thybulle: 480 minutes
Scoot Henderson: 748 minutes
Kris Murray: 1,333 minutes
Shaedon Sharpe: 1,471 minutes
Jrue Holiday: 1,560 minutes
Jerami Grant: 1,695 minutes
Suddenly the Blazers are ten deep
Over the last few days, Jerami Grant and Shaedon Sharpe both returned from injury. The Blazers like to play a high-energy, push-the-ball/pick-you-up-full-court style. In the middle of the season they simply didn’t have the horses to out-energy many opponents.
All of a sudden they have ten must-play players (before counting Sidy Cissoko and Vít Krejčí who both have been regulars). The upshot: Grant looked fresh in crunch time against the Suns because he only played 19 minutes.
This is how it’s going to go against the Spurs. At all times, the Blazers will have many fresh players.
Sharpe also had his moments. Under stress, the Blazers’ offense tends to be a lot of “throw the ball to Deni and pray.” It’s one tiny thing, but on a late play where Deni had been stymied by the Suns’ tough defense, Sharpe ended up sorting out the problem by driving, drawing a ton of defensive attention, and finding the open man for a corner 3 to bring the Blazers within three with 3 minutes left. Good stuff.
Playoff experience
The Spurs have very little playoff experience, all in all. David Thorpe weighs that heavily, I debated him on that point in a recent video, and there’s a good Yahoo! article by Tom Haberstroh explaining why the playoffs might be more of a young man’s game than they used to be.
But as I consider the Spurs vs. the Blazers, and who might rally everyone to keep cool heads in stressful moments, I’m aware that the Spurs’ playoff experience is mostly gathered in the minds of Luke Kornet, Kelly Olynyk, and Harrison Barnes.
The Blazers are also young and new to all this, but … not two-time champion Jrue Holiday, who is already accustomed to being the team’s vocal leader. Robert Williams III has been 20-games deep into the playoffs. This’ll be Jerami Grant’s fifth journey to the postseason. And Damian Lillard isn’t playing, but he has played in 68 playoff games and will very much be on the plane and the bench and in the locker room.
And do you know who played in 65 playoff games and won a title? Blazers coach Tiago Splitter. The Blazers are young, and sometimes can get a little tight. They are about to enter basketball’s finest and most intense finishing school, which will bode well for similar situations in the future. The learning is incredibly valuable, and sometimes painful. But on this team, I’m guessing no small about of the learning will come from coworkers who have been there, and winning—at least a game or two.
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