David Thorpe's title odds heading into Round 2
No Celtics or Nuggets changes a lot
About ten minutes into Raptors-Cavs Game 7, I noticed I was breathing a little differently. The level of intensity just leapt off the screen. This league has the raw materials—the players, the facilities, the TV networks, the infrastructure, the global awareness—to become something truly special and far bigger than it is.
These games, now, in May, are the key product. And they’re a far cry from the listless tank-o-thon of the second half of the regular season. Although that’ll clearly be back with us next season (no matter what Adam Silver says) thank goodness we’re rid of it for now.
One of the upshots of this high-intensity playoff thrill ride has been that some teams take to it better than others.
About a month ago, David shared his view of which teams were contending, and how likely each was to win the title.
At that time, his list was:
Thunder 54%
Celtics 13%
Nuggets 13%
Knicks 7%
Spurs 5%
Pistons 5%
Cavs 2%
Rockets 1%
And he added: “I would not give Minnesota nor the Lakers any chance.” Many people have reached out to question the Spurs’ low percentage, or the Wolves, or the Pistons. His rationale is here.
The world changes. A key skill is to be nimble adjusting to new information. After round one, David’s list has been pretty beat up. It’s not just peak basketball playing season right now, it’s also peak basketball training season. David’s on the road with players preparing for the draft. His days are packed, he’s officially off vis a vis his TrueHoop duties.
But as the Celtics, Nuggets, and Rockets are all out, and the second round starts tonight, I asked David if he could share updated title odds. He texted simple numbers, without any explanation, showing a heavy favorite, and three other teams with a real shot. Presumably we’ll get more detail in the days to come.
They are as follows:
