David Thorpe's contenders
Thunder by a country mile, then Celtics and Nuggets
There are Vegas lines, playoff predictors, and power indexes. Many different ways of modeling the teams that are most likely to win the 2026 NBA title.
They don’t agree, but they agree that the Thunder are the favorites, followed by the Spurs and then, in varying orders, the Celtics, Pistons, Nuggets, Knicks, Cavs, and maybe Hornets.
Soon we’re going to be swayed by the excitement of the play-in tournament and the opening games of the playoffs. Before all that arrives, I called David Thorpe to get his early look into how he sees this year’s contenders.
DAVID: OKC is a no brainer. I’d pick them over the field. Let’s say 54 percent likely to win the 2026 NBA title.
Jalen Williams is not the same player he was a year ago. But the team is better. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is sharper, unbelievably confident. He’s the best leader in the NBA. Ajay Mitchell and Cason Wallace are playing with unreal freedom and ease. Chet’s gotten better.
A lot of these teams will make up their own narratives to help sharpen their focus, and I think in Oklahoma City they feel like they’re disrespected. They’re upset it took them seven games to win last year–they were worried they were going to lose the Finals. They survived, they’ve battled through a lot of injuries this year, and now they have an edge. You’re not going to catch them unaware, and they feel like they have tiger blood.
HENRY: I almost feel like they have too many players. I don’t know what they’re going to do long term.
DAVID: They’re going to move those players to very lucky teams.
The Celtics are my second choice. Doing the math, let’s give them a 13 percent chance to win it all. They found a way to win with younger bigs Neemias Queta and Luke Garza. What Jaylen Brown and Derrick White have done, and then you throw Tatum in? Unlike everybody else, who’ll be getting tired, I think Tatum is going to find his rhythm better and better in the playoffs. As opposed to wearing down, I suspect he’s going to get up to speed.
The Pistons have not done this at all.
