Thorpe’s updated championship chances

Will injuries decide this year’s champion?

BY DAVID THORPE

Anthony Edwards led the Timberwolves to a first-round sweep over the Suns to earn the least-desirable matchup in the Western Conference. CHRISTIAN PETERSEN/GETTY IMAGES

As the first round draws to a close, everything has changed: LeBron and Giannis have been absent; Anthony Edwards has blown minds; Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Jalen Brunson are at war; the Suns didn’t win a game; and the Heat have gone home. 

But through all the smoke, what emerges for me is: The Celtics are still heavy favorites in the East, and the Nuggets remain heavy favorites in the West.

So long as they’re healthy. 

And that’s where the real lingering news of the first round might be that the league’s two heavy favorites both have stars with the season’s most fashionable and tenacious injury: the calf strain. It can take a long time to heal, which might decide the championship—because without Kristaps Porziņģis I wouldn’t pick the Celtics to win it all, and without Jamal Murray I wouldn’t pick the Nuggets.

If not them, then who?

Boston Celtics (37% chance to win title)

The healthy Celtics might not lose to any team on earth in a seven-game series, and certainly not the Cavs or Magic. Sometimes, it’s about matchups—and the Celtics got a good one.

That’s thanks, in part, to the Heat. Losing Game 2 to the Heat was exactly what the Celtics needed. After dropping that game in Boston, the Celtics outscored the Heat by an average of 108-85. The Heat never scored 90 points again. Yes, the Heat are beat up, but the Celtics also got a valuable wakeup call. Mature, connected teams can weave magic from the pain of losing. The Celtics’ response showed why they’re the league’s best team.