Thorpe’s 2024-2025 contenders: Denver Nuggets

Can they find gold in a shallow mine?

BY DAVID THORPE

Though they lost in seven games to the Wolves in the second round in May, the Nuggets still have three-time MVP Nikola Jokić and three key starters from their championship core. C. MORGAN ENGEL/GETTY IMAGES

Over the next couple weeks, we’ll be profiling eight teams that, according to David Thorpe, have a legitimate chance to become 2024-2025 NBA champions. 

We begin with the Denver Nuggets. Despite being among the title favorites, and another MVP season from Nikola Jokić—they showed signs of slippage last season. 

That reason, among many others, is why David ranks the Nuggets lowest among his eight viable contenders. 

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Denver Nuggets

Regular season prediction: 46-36

For the past two seasons, I’ve been saying the Nuggets’ lack of depth would be their downfall. I was wrong in 2022-2023, when key contributions from offseason acquisition Bruce Brown and rookie Christian Braun fueled a title. But light started to peek through the cracks last season, when the Nuggets failed to get past the ascendant Wolves.

And that was before the Nuggets lost Kentavious-Caldwell Pope. It’s a big fucking blow. In many ways, KCP is the ideal modern shooting guard: shoots 3s, avoids bad shots, makes winning plays. He was arguably the Nugs’ best defender. Toss in the fact that he’s started for two of the past five NBA title-bearers, and you can see how losing KCP returns the spotlight to Denver’s alarming lack of depth. 

Sources have told me for over two seasons that there is a disconnect between head coach Michael Malone and the Nuggets’ front office. Whoever pushed the roster in this direction, Malone must now rely on his young and inexperienced contingent of Braun, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett, and Hunter Tyson somehow not only to fill the void left by KCP’s absence, but to help the team beat other seven teams we’re about to profile. It’s a tall order. 

Though Watson shows real promise defensively, it’s hard to imagine any of these guys will make the leap to KCP’s level this season. Admittedly, Malone was excellent two seasons ago, but long-term he’s not a coach whose young players tend to make great leaps forward. Nevertheless, they’ll all play, and someone could make a jump. 

Russell Westbrook, who turns 36 in November, will help so long as he’s willing to play off the ball. Jokić commands global respect; I doubt he and Westbrook will bump heads. However, in Los Angeles, Russ had James Harden, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard drawing defensive attention. Aside from Jokić, and maybe clutch-time Jamal Murray, the Nuggets have nowhere near that level of gravity. If winning with Westbrook delays the development of younger Nuggets, that’s no big deal for this season—win-now mode is still fully engaged. 

Make no mistake, though: Malone has to make decisions in November that will pay off the following spring. I doubt it’s appetizing to him, but letting his young players play through mistakes and losses makes sense. 

In theory, Dario Šarić is a nice fit. He’s an underrated defender with a little perimeter game. Nevertheless, the Nuggets probably won’t outscore many opponents when Jokić is off the floor. 

And that’s not all. 

Jamal Murray, who’s entering a contract year, had an abysmal summer. It’s been reported that Murray was dealing with an ankle injury during the Paris Olympics. Sources told me he also struggled during Team Canada’s training camp. Couple that with his poor shooting in last year’s playoffs—40 percent from the field, 31 percent from 3—and one of the Nuggets’ best players has become cause for concern. To make another title run, the Nuggets will need Murray competing for an All-Star nod.

Nothing about Michael Porter Jr. gives me the warm-and-fuzzies, either. Even setting aside his family strife, how will MPJ deal with what may become the rockiest Nuggets season of his career? This year’s Nuggets will be tested. Does MPJ have the gritty resolve to fight through the slog of a hard NBA season?

Suddenly, the question becomes: “Will Jokić become yet another superstar damned by his team’s decisions?” One solution would be to bundle some combination of Braun, Watson, and/or Strawther in a trade for a legit difference-maker. There’s no shortage of teams that will fall short of expectations—any could have the right piece.

Former Nugget and current Blazer Jerami Grant would be a decent fit—but the Nuggets’ win-now cost structure means they have big-salary stars they need to keep and inexpensive players. It’s perfect in many ways, but it also means they would have a devil of a time coming up with salaries to ship Portland to match the $30 million Grant is due this season. The Nugs would have to move one of their four championship starters to make that work. Another option could be Terance Mann, who makes just $11 million and—unless the Clippers extend him—will be a free agent after this season. Whatever happens, the Nuggets would be wise to deal while they’re still in a position of strength. 

So, how are the Nuggets still one of my top contenders? Jokić, Murray, and Aaron Gordon are all firmly in their primes, and MPJ is entering his—potentially, all four could have monster years. Braun, already great in transition, could develop into an elite defender who shoots 40 percent from 3. Westbrook and Šarić could lead the second unit with real pace and intensity. Watson (or another prospect) could start making enough winning plays to have a positive impact. 

I know: That’s a multiverse of hypotheticals. Here’s one more: Should the wheels fly off in December or January, might Jokić actually get vocal about the lack of talent around him? That will spell trouble.

But to ignore the Nuggets altogether is to ignore Joker’s unparalleled talent. I’m nowhere near ready to do that.

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