The Thunder are the West favorites
But Victor Wembanyama can change everything
A conversation on the Western conference finals, which begin Monday at 8:30 pm ET.
DAVID: A tiny few players in NBA history can not will their team but carry their team to another level that they otherwise should not reach. In my lifetime. it started with watching what Magic Johnson did as a rookie, in 1980, with his 42 points, 15 rebounds, and 7 assists game. It was just one game, but he was MVP of the series.
Wemby’s one of those guys.
The Thunder are significantly better as constructed right now. But Victor can be such a difference maker on both ends.
HENRY: It’s just stupid, honestly. At times, I have no idea what you’re supposed to do. If you’re a ball-handler in the paint, and he’s lurking behind you, what are you supposed to do?
DAVID: That’s a real concern.
Is he able to make those kinds of plays, is he able to control the paint defensively? That really matters because of all the drives that OKC wants to do. They don’t want to be just a shooting team. They want to get to the rim.
And how does he shoot from 3? It’s certainly possible he shoots badly from 3, but it’s also possible that he doesn’t.
What kind of emotional maturity does he have to settle his younger guys?
When you have the best player on the court on your team, it can give you some of the confidence and swagger that OKC tends to have.
And, yeah, so that to me is a big issue. Wemby gives the Spurs a chance.
The other is on the OKC side, where Ajay Mitchell might be better than Jalen Williams, and I’m not sure how the Thunder will handle that. There’s absolutely a world where they’re both on the court. But there’s also a place where one or the other plays, that’s something that I think Mark Daigneault’s really gonna have to figure out game to game. What are my best rotations? How do I want to break this stuff down? I don’t think it’s cut and dried. I think they’re gonna have to experiment a little bit.
HENRY: Haven’t they been doing that all year, though? Anytime they’ve had injuries all year, that’s how they talk about it, right? We’re gonna find new and different ways to win. They’ve been studying forever. I feel like I don’t know how they’re gonna do it, but I know they’re very open to change.
DAVID: Right. He’s always focused on that, and for that I think he’s super smart. The concern I have that I think what will end up happening is it’ll be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Hartenstein. And then, obviously, Alex Caruso will play, Lou Dort will play, and Cason Wallace will play. That might be their death lineup right there. But we can look it up … I don’t think that lineup has played a ton. (ED NOTE: Very very little indeed. I invite you to spend an hour like I just did, digging through these lineups. Am I missing something? I can’t find that they played together at all. I can tell you that Hartenstein, SGA, Chet, and Ajay played 93 minutes together all regular season. Can’t find any minutes with that lineup plus Jalen Williams.)
But I think best lineup is Mitchell and SGA in the backcourt. Mitchell doesn’t have a lot of experience in the playoffs, so that’s that’s an advantage for San Antonio. But they’ve got young guys too. Mitchell didn’t really play in all the playoffs last year, so we’ll see how all those players handle major fourth-quarter minutes.
They will also, I’d guess, go small at times and bring in Caruso in place of Chet or Isaiah.
HENRY: OKC has so many high-level defenders to throw at, to throw at Wemby. A lot of teams’ most effective defender or against Wemby has been a guard.
DAVID: Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Ajay Mitchell can really give him some problems, because they’re strong, Caruso, like piano-wire, strong, Mitchell and Dort are strong strong.
They can get under him and cause them some problems.
They also will get their ass kicked sometimes too.
HENRY: Let’s say Caruso emerges as the best at guarding Wemby. Do you start him?
DAVID: If it turns out he’s the best at it, yes. Although I also think Ajay Mitchell is an elite elite defender.
I don’t think they’re going to start with a small on Wemby, but it’s absolutely a powerful idea. If it’s not Game 1 then Game 2.
HENRY: I really enjoy watching a little guy guard a big guy.
DAVID: You’re doing something where everyone knows what’s going to happen, which is we’re going to try to take advantage of Wemby versus the small guy. Now all the help guys know what’s going to happen. Playing the matchup game isn’t always so effective because you’re telling the other team exactly what you’re going to do, and that kind of stunts the natural tendency to play a more fluid style.
Wemby is a guy that does like to maneuver with the ball, and he’s amazing at that—but not against guards.
HENRY: What happened when the Spurs beat the Thunder in the regular season? Like, how did they do that?
