The NBA’s Walter Clayton Jr. conundrum

And: nice going, Cooper Flagg

BY DAVID THORPE

Florida’ Walter Clayton Jr. has been incredible in this tournament, which creates a conundrum for the NBA. EZRA SHAW/GETTY IMAGES

Before we dig into the NBA implications of majestic tournament play of Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr., we must discuss the obvious. I’m not blind. The best player in the tournament has been Duke’s Cooper Flagg. It’s a tremendous credit to him that he's met high expectations against tough competition as a freshman. The other three teams left standing have multiple guys who are 22 or 23. Duke has mostly young guys, and Flagg is their lynchpin at an age when he could be a senior in high school–he reclassified. It’s thrilling to see the way he defends, the way he competes, the way he plays the right way. He's shown an ability to score and shoot beyond expectations.

Projecting players is hard, but this one less so: Flagg’s going to be a wonderful NBA power forward and a perennial All-Star. The key factors in how good he is among All-Stars is the ongoing development of his handle and shot. Can he make a bucket like Jayson Tatum, even when he can’t get to the rim, or will he be more like Giannis who needs to get to the cup? We don't know.

And this is the worst he's ever going to be! There's no reason to doubt his work ethic. Time will tell if he ends up the best player in the class, but he's the safest bet. (Paul George makes a case that Ace Bailey, the immensely gifted forward from Rutgers, has more upside. I understand the argument based on athletic talent, length and height, etc., but projecting upside must include things like competitiveness, feel for the game, and work ethic, where Flagg has been outstanding.)

There are so many amazing power forwards. Giannis, AD, Zion, Sabonis, KD, Siakam, Paolo, JJJ, Chet, … I could go on. It's the NBA’s most loaded position. Flagg has a chance to be in that group’s top-five for a decade plus.

Cooper is more physical than Pascal Siakam was at that age. Siakam was more slithery where Cooper is stronger. There are only two or three NBA power forwards who can score 20 points a game and seven rebounds and shoot 40 percent from 3. Flagg has that potential. In year three, I’d guess, depending on the team that he goes to, he’s going to average 20 points and seven-plus rebounds, while also being a plus defender. That's awesome.

The breakout star of the NCAA tournament is Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr. There’s a very real chance Florida will win it all and Clayton Jr. will be named the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player. Will he get to play in the NBA?

Clayton Jr.’s name is not mentioned in ESPN’s pre-tournament mock draft. This First Team All-American, leading a top-seeded team, was not going to get drafted. But that might have already changed. (As an agent told me: all it takes is one Vivek Ranadivé to watch this tournament and say we're definitely taking that guy.)

Drafting Clayton Jr. might be brilliant, but it also might be exactly like the guy who won the Most Outstanding Player award one year ago. Remember his name? Tristen Newton has already been cut by the Pacers and finished the season on the G-League team in Iowa.

Which makes Clayton Jr. a fascinating case study. He’s a huge potential player who might make it nowhere. I’ll explain.