BY DAVID THORPE
Reading mock drafts should come with a warning: Enjoy the player capsules, ignore everything past the lottery picks.
Drafting for potential is a time-honored tradition in the NBA. But there’s no science to knowing who’ll be able to perform. For rebuilding or developing teams, stockpiling potential makes a ton of sense just to see what works out. Playoff teams and contenders, though, know they’re gambling and may well end up with holes they need to fill via free agency and trades.
The league is changing, though, and win-now players make more sense than ever. Now, thanks to changes in the league’s CBA, the league will be forced to evolve beyond its conventions. Why? Hardly any teams have salary cap wiggle room! That means every team will need to become more creative in the draft, with a premium on finding players who can play now.
Rookies very rarely help teams win. Of course, that same contender might pay three times as much in salary to acquire a veteran. But for a contender, there’s little sense in hoping an 18-to-20-year-old prospect will figure things out by April. Why lock up a roster spot for two or three years on the chance he might someday help?
Most picks are home-run swings: the 6-10 athlete who’ll be amazing if he learns how to play or the elite point guard who needs to learn defense. Mock drafts tend to reflect that same thinking: Who’s the player with the best long-term potential? While lottery teams can dream about lofty ceilings, contenders can’t afford to pay and roster many players who won’t help them win. And if an NBA team has aims to win in the playoffs, it makes little sense to plant a draft pick on the bench or in the G League.
Contenders should be scouring colleges for plug-and-play prospects who can help in their rotations—and looking to trade down so they can get the right player at the right price. They should be targeting capable defenders from winning programs who have learned how to play the right way. And they need something mock drafts never measure: Is this guy a dawg?
Draft dawgs who defend
Younger players can learn how to shoot, dribble, and pass. Yet, it’s nearly impossible to tell if a teenaged prospect possesses the boiling-lava-for-blood required to make it in the NBA.
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