The first round so far
Film and notes on almost every team (sorry, Knicks)
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Here’s everything David Thorpe and I have been talking about watching every first-round series.
PANIC
HENRY Over the weekend in a couple of Game 3s, the Wolves had to play without Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo and the Spurs had to play without Victor Wembanyama. Both the Wolves and Spurs won.
It was the best possible outcome for those teams. Think about how much more robust they are for the rest of the playoffs knowing they can win competitive games with players like Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox, or Ayo Dosunmu leading the charge? This is how you build trust in your teammates, and this is how you treat, almost medically, the anxiety attack that is Tom Thibodeau, and so many coaches, who only believe stars can lead you to wins.
Those games were a little reminder: take a deep breath. There are many ways to win games.
The people who were desperate for Wemby to play in Game 3 … I personally found the idea they’d play Wemby so crazy. The guy, he didn’t nick his elbow, right? Yeah, he didn’t have a contusion. He has a brain injury. How sick do you have to be not to care about that? And by the way, if he gets another concussion, oh, it’s all sorts of problems for the rest of his life.
HENRY Obviously, he played in Game 4 and played well. But to my eyes he fell down a lot more than normal, which is in keeping with some research Tom Haberstroh found. Also, betting on Wembanyama to just shake off the rigors of this game has not worked so well in the past. It’s hard on a body to be that tall! He had a stress fracture in 2020, and a bunch of ankle and calf issues, before he missed half a season to deep vein thrombosis.
DAVID Let’s protect his unique body! So what if it costs you a game! It’s not the first one to one, it’s the first one to four. You have to think bigger picture on this kind of stuff. One word that I get a lot from from NBA players when we talk this time of year is panic. Coaches panic, players panic, the grizzled veterans tend not to. It’s amazing that coaches panic, considering they’re the oldest of all of them, but they feel so pressured.
HENRY To me, it’s categorically stupid for the owners to wind coaches up in that way, right? And it’s categorically stupid for the coaches to think they can get the best out of their players. Screaming and yelling might make you a better athlete for say, the last 20 meters of 100 meter dash or whatever. Mindless rage doesn’t do nothing. But it is not going to be the best way to handle a two-and-a half week tussle with an elite opponent where you have to think a lot, recognize the defense, and make smart winning decisions.
DAVID I couldn’t agree more. Honestly, I drill this in myself. If there are two minutes left on the microwave timer, I’ll determine a little list of tasks to get done in those two minutes, and then it’s my task not to get sped up, to get the cup of tea ready or really tie your shoes nicely or whatever it is. You can’t let the clock overwhelm your thinking.
CAVALIERS-RAPTORS
DAVID Toronto plays absolutely terrible offensive basketball. Can’t make a shot. They’re missing Immanuel Quickly, so they’re starting Ja’Kobe Walter who missed all 11 3s he attempted over two games and 13 in a row. With Jamal Shead, they combined for two points over 53 minutes. But they won.
My first thought: that was a game, not a series victory. When you’ve won two, you have to get to four. And Cleveland’s at home in Game 5. They are overwhelming favorites. But the feeling in Cleveland, I’m sure, is Armageddon. Oh my God, we lost two straight to Toronto even though they’re without Quickley and can’t make shots. Jarrett Allen was bad in Game 3. They’re probably thinking “we’re the worst ever.”
But a Game 5 win on Wednesday and they can close this out and move on—that’s the mindset. I saw Donovan Mitchell appear to say to a teammate as they walked off the court “we’re OK, we’re OK.” That feeling needs to resonate. Cleveland has to shake the feeling of “we should have swept these guys.” The focus should be on finding ways to win Game 5, that is it.
Donovan looked so hurt and tired in the game every time he scored. I kept thinking my god, he’s a magician. It sometimes looks like he’s laboring to get back on defense. He’s carrying a big load. His effort to save the ball as it rolled out of bounds when the game was over, goodness that was awesome to see. That’s a guy who’s just, he’s all in. I love that. And so I would not be surprised to see him, and the Cavs, play fantastically in Game 5 because of that voice saying “we’re OK.” Of course it would help to get better play from James Harden and Allen!
Did you see Raptors coach Darko Rajaković after Game 4? He went to the locker room like it was a WWE event. I loved it, because American players see him as kind of a weird European. But here’s where they’re aligned. And you know what? His guys play hard as fuck, man, hard as fuck. They’re so physical. I think Darko has done for the Raptors what J.B. Bickerstaff did in Detroit. They draft for toughness much of the time and then Darko gets it out of them.
Colin Murray-Boyles wasn’t drafted top five, he was taken ninth. He’s not as skilled as a lot of guys. He’s not as long and tall as some guys are playing his position, but he has the heart of a freaking warrior.
HENRY And Darko plays him!
DAVID Exactly my point. This team is mirroring the personality of their best player in Scottie Barnes, and this playoff experience will help them grow that way.
HENRY I’m happy that this team is built this way, because they will develop. They probably won’t have another 53 minutes with two points from two players like that, right? Those guys will have great offseasons and figure it out.
DAVID Right. Or those spots will go to other good young players. The 905 won the most games of any team in the G-League this year, 37-13.
HENRY They’ll figure that out, which is cool.
But also part of me is like: this might be peak Scottie Barnes. Kinda like Giannis at a certain stage. And he’s on a shitty team, which is too bad. Maybe he’ll still be peaking in three years when these guys are ready to run with him. But he’s incredible right now. He’s guarding the best player, and competing so hard, and wow what if he got to play with someone like Donovan Mitchell, you know? Toronto’s rebuild might be mistimed for Scottie. It’s kind of sad.
DAVID Getting Brandon Ingram was probably a gigantic mistake. I mean, he’s a bucket getter, but not an efficient one. They’d probably be better off not spending that money. Meanwhile, it’s not the same management crew. Scottie’s superpower is an incredible feel for the game, combined with unbelievable motor and physicality. So he’s got to improve his skill game, because he isn’t Giannis. He’s big, but not that big. And you can’t just always bully. He and Colin Murray-Boyles are in similar boats. If they can really get to be skilled players, they can improve so much.
NUGGETS
DAVID This has become a very disconcerting series, reminding me of the Raptors 2019 title win over the injured Warriors. Up 3-1, but without sharpshooter and spirited leader Donte DiVincenzo due to a blown Achilles, and superstar Anthony Edwards owing to a bone bruise and knee hyperextension. The Wolves were very unlikely to win on the road at altitude. Denver was missing do-it-all forward Aaron Gordon. It’s become a series of “does it matter now?” as both teams seem very unlikely to be in position to upset the Spurs in the next round (yes that’s a prediction).
But Nikola Jokić gave us all a gift. It would be easy to expect the oft-frustrated mega-star to try to channel his inner-Kobe and carry his somewhat listless team to at least one more win at home. Instead he handed out 16 assists and took 15 shots, and finished with 27 points, 12 rebounds, and 16 dimes. Many of his assists were garden variety, simple dribble hand-offs that enabled his shooters to get good looks.
Others were more a trademark of his passing gifts, like the dime to Hardaway Jr. at the millisecond Rudy Gobert tried to switch back to Jokić. There are very few players who ever played that could make this kind of read and pass.
Win or lose this series, it seems Denver has to retool. More athletes. More dynamic defenders. More size inside. The Joker is still in top form, let’s see if ownership and management can keep up. (Keep reading for my Pistons/Nuggets trade idea.)
