The betting markets have been accurate, and pick Warriors

But the Celtics have been underrated all along

BY JEFF FOGLE

Two of the NBA’s feistiest defenses meet in the Finals. LACHLAN CUNNINGHAM/GETTY IMAGES

Prediction markets have done a stellar job forecasting 2022 NBA playoff results heading into the NBA Finals featuring the Warriors and the Celtics that begin Thursday in San Francisco. 

Favorites, as published before every series on TrueHoop this postseason, have won 12-of-14 series: 

• First Round: 7-1 

• Second round: 3-1 

• Conference Finals: 2-0

Both series upsets were earned by the Mavericks. A simple strategy of “bet the favorites” has already locked in a profitable return for the year. That 12-2 record is equivalent to 12-6 in real-money terms after accounting for money lost on the favored Jazz and Suns, who were about -300 favorites. 

Though, one could argue that the sum of informed crowds actually missed the mark by more than it seems because prices underestimated favorite dominance. A 12-2 record represents an 86-percent success rate. Most series favorites were priced in the 60-75 percent range. Markets “picked the winners,” but actually priced favorites too conservatively.