Rookies almost never make good teams better
The rookie myth
I don’t know Bobby Marks, ESPN’s astute cap expert, the former GM of the Nets and a longtime NBA executive before his ESPN gig. We have mutual friends, and let’s just say I hope they speak as well of me to him as they do to me about him. I enjoy all of his podcast appearances, I learn a ton. But then I read these words last week:
If the Pacers retain their pick, it could propel the franchise back into title contention two seasons after a run to Game 7 of the 2025 Finals. Indiana would have star Tyrese Haliburton back from an Achilles tear and be in position to draft from a pool of players that includes AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, Darius Acuff Jr. and Caleb Wilson.
Oh Bobby.
Word for word, he isn’t wrong. “Could” is the appropriate word. But I could win the lottery this week, my ten-year-old dog could live another ten years, and the Timberwolves could win the NBA Finals because Rudy Gobert started to rain 3s. Not bloody likely.
It’s tempting to think an incoming rookie will immediately reverse a team’s fortunes. It’s time to take a far more realistic view, for both the betterment of our understanding of the NBA and for the players themselves.
I’m being a little unfair to Bobby, who is hardly alone. But of course in the world’s hardest basketball league, everything is hard.
It takes time and experience to account for NBA shot blockers, and this play is part of learning. When Dylan Harper is a veteran, he probably won’t drive directly into a waiting shotblocker like Clint Capela.
I had a dear friend, an NBA agent with multiple clients, say to me when JJ Redick was hired, “it’s disrespectful to you and your line of work to think someone who has never coached before would be able to do it well enough to win a title in year one.” One of my brothers told me the same thing. JJ played in the NBA for over a decade, his teams competed in 23 playoff series over those years, with his appearing in 110 games, and after his career he hosted a popular hoops podcast and was famous for breaking down film clips with fellow players or coaches. A basketball lifer, to be sure. But he had never coached before. Was he ready to lead a group of men to a title? Not a chance. So much of this you can only learn by doing.
Of course it’s true of players, too. This league is so tough that even wonderful players and coaches take some time to master it. The last 17 NBA rookies of the year average an EPM of 0.1, which is the current EPM of Trayce Jackson-Davis, Luke Kornet, or Matisse Thybulle.
Last year Stephon Castle won ROY and the Spurs were clearly better at both ends when he sat.
Not a single rookie was better than +0.8 in EPM in 2024-2025.
This season the NBA has played 75 rookies and all in all they’ve done well. By EPM, Kon Knueppel has produced like Victor Wembanyama. And yet no rookie is in the NBA’s top 30 in EPM. Only one has played at least 50 games and is +1 or more. Seven are in the positive. Way more rookies (15) are -4 or or worse than are +1 or better.
Cooper Flagg might win ROY and is the 222nd most productive NBA player.
Mercifully for Cooper Flagg, the Mavs only have six games left. But when they’re good enough to contend, at this time of year they’ll have two full months left, all against super-prepared good-to-great teams.
VJ Edgecombe is more explosive than anyone in the 2026 NBA draft—but making only a pedestrian 58 percent of his shots at the rim, which puts him in the 21st percentile. What he’s missing isn’t hops, but a hard-won ability to read the defense.
These are the kinds of things that are in my mind as I think about the idea any rookie will help the Pacers next year. The top five players in the 2026 draft class are all freshmen, none led a team to the Final Four, each would be hard-pressed to even start for the Pacers, much less improve their title odds.
