Problem solving 101

Part I: Good teams, likely not great

We’re going into the 2025-2026 offseason with almost every top roster reshuffled. In time, we’ll discuss all 30 teams.

Today let’s examine teams that are trying to win now but, I predict, will fail to contend. The Mavericks, Wolves, Clippers, Heat, Grizzlies, Hawks, Warriors, and Pistons will all be good but each have at least one massive challenge to overcome before joining the league’s elite.

The Mavericks experimented with Cooper Flagg as a ball-handler in summer league. It didn’t go well. Whatever position Flagg might one day play in the NBA, the smart move for now is to have him play his natural position, power forward. But the Mavericks already have Anthony Davis—among others—at that position. ETHAN MILLER/GETTY IMAGES

DALLAS MAVERICKS

The Mavericks have two legit centers in Derrick Lively II and the newly extended Daniel Gafford. So Anthony Davis gets his wish: nearly all of his minutes will be at the power forward spot.

But:

• The future of the team is #1 overall pick Cooper Flagg. Do you know what his natural position is? Power forward. (I know the Mavs played him as a primary guard in Vegas for two games, but it only reminded us that for the foreseeable future, he’s best playing power forward.)

• When the Mavericks were in the Finals against the Celtics in 2024–one year ago–do you know who started at power forward? P.J. Washington! He’s still on the Mavericks, about to turn 27, a solid player, and a power forward.

• The Mavericks have a high-potential stud deep on their bench, former first-round pick Olivier Maxence-Prosper. He just turned 23. You know his best position?

It’s probably too soon to know what Flagg will be in the NBA. But I’m utterly convinced that it’s valuable to start rookies with simple instructions, and to build from there. If Flagg is going to dominate the ball while he adjusts to the league, there’s a chance he could learn brutal and harmful lessons about how competitive this league is. If the Mavericks want to keep it simple for him, step one would be: don’t change his position.

Maybe he can excel in a new position, like Giannis did when he first entered the league. The Mavs hope so. Otherwise, they’ll need a few more trades to clean up the logjam at the four and allow Flagg to grow to his full potential.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

When the Wolves traded away a ton of future picks to get Rudy Gobert a few years ago, we speculated that it was a heavy bet on Anthony Edwards and a move towards immediate relevance. Since then, they have played in two straight conference finals. Although they only have two wins total in those series, they are certainly relevant.

As is Edwards. He’s developed into an All-NBA player, and at 27 years of age, seems ready to tackle huge loads in his prime.

I’m kidding! Edwards just turned 24. He has the potential to get far better. Will he? That is up to him. To his good fortune, he has a player to emulate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, Finals MVP, and champion who plays the same position while dominating on both ends. Can Edwards return to being the two-way monster he was a couple of seasons ago, as opposed to the more milquetoast version we saw much of last year? In Estimated Plus-Minus, Edwards is good at both ends, but Shai is elite, and taken all together–literally twice as productive. On average last season, that stat estimates Shai at +7.4 compared to +3.4 for Edwards. As the road to the title runs through Shai for the time being, now is no time to rest. The Wolves have a bona fide young star, but if they want to win it all, there’s work to be done.

There’s also a problem at point guard. Mike Conley Jr. is probably better off the bench. But then who starts? Rob Dillingham has not shown an ability to quarterback a team; he needs to make a big jump merely to be a reliable rotation player.

The West will be very strong; it will be tough for Minnesota to make their third straight conference finals. The good news is that they have young talent on the roster. I love young wings like Terrance Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark. They need to play a lot, Dillingham probably too, even if it means more losses this year, so at least they will be productive in meaningful minutes in 2026 and beyond.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

I can make the argument that the Clippers were last year’s most surprising team, at least in the regular season where they won 50 games like the Nuggets and Lakers. The key wasn’t just the elite talent of James Harden or the emergence of Ivica Zubac as an All-Star level center, it was the way they defended collectively. By almost any measure, they were a top-three defense.