BY HENRY ABBOTT

When the Rockets got future-MVP James Harden from the Thunder, everyone knew he was wonderful, but everyone also assumed he was the Thunder’s third banana. The Rockets made him the center of their solar system and an MVP.
The Harden case echoes the story of two-time MVP Steve Nash. He’d been good on his first team, in Phoenix, but (this is the part your team should copy) the Mavericks were able to get him in a trade for Pat Garrity, Bubba Wells, double-umlaut Martin Müürsepp, and the pick that became Shawn Marion. Nash became an All-Star in Dallas, but (don’t copy this part) he really blossomed after re-signing as a free agent in Phoenix, where he cooked up the modern NBA offense under the same coach, Mike D’Antoni, who would later coach Harden. (Mark Cuban later talked openly about how the Mavericks had whiffed in letting Nash leave.)
This almost never happens. There are many strategies to build a contender, but trading for a future MVP is seldom one of them. Those players just don’t get traded much. When MVPs have changed teams, it’s often owing to extraordinary circumstances like LeBron forcing his way to Miami or Shaq to the Lakers. Over the last forty years, 33-of-40 MVPs were won by players still on the team that drafted them—names like Jordan, Magic, Bird, Malone, and Duncan.
But right now Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the best player on the best team in basketball, is Vegas’ MVP favorite. If Shai wins, he highlights another loophole: Maybe your team can trade for a top-flight stud before it’s clear he’s a superhero.
When the Thunder got Shai from the Clippers in July 2019, everyone knew he was special. He hadn’t missed a game; he’d performed in the playoffs; he’d had maybe 10 exquisite games. At a mere 20 years old, he already had single-game career highs of 24 points, 10 assists, four steals, and four blocks. But Shai had just finished sixth in Rookie of the Year voting, between Collin Sexton and Marvin Bagley III. In a quarter of his rookie-year games, Shai had two-or-fewer field goals. In over half of his regular-season games that season, he made zero 3-pointers. He wasn’t exactly a surefire All-Star.
In real time, Kevin Pelton gave the Thunder an A for that trade, but not because he thought they had a future MVP on their hands:
In the short term, Gilgeous-Alexander’s value is probably slightly overstated. He ranked 50th among point guards in ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus last season and was aided by the presence of veteran Patrick Beverley to help run the Clippers’ offense.
Nonetheless, given Gilgeous-Alexander’s combination of size (6-foot-6), production and age, his future is bright. Point guards tend to develop later than players at other positions, giving Gilgeous-Alexander years of improvement ahead of him …
Getting the 50th-best point guard might have been the best trade in NBA history. The credit for what follows goes to the partnership of Shai and the Thunder. He didn’t lose faith, never demanded a trade to a contender—even as in his second, third, and fourth years in OKC, the Thunder finished 14th, 14th, and 10th out of the West’s 15 teams. Sam Presti and the Thunder eventually brought him wonderful teammates and coaching. It’s entirely possible that he never would have gotten this good on another team. High-potential players rot on benches all over the league.
Which brings me to what’s on my mind today: What other Shais are out there? I give you no credit for suggesting Victor Wembanyama might one day win an MVP. Everyone knows that, so your team simply won’t get him. But who’s a little further down the list—a hazy prospect that your team might be able to Shai away from his current squad?
David and I just had a big debate over whether non-contending teams like the Raptors and 76ers should consider trading away blue-chippers like Scottie Barnes and Tyrese Maxey for a Shai-like prospect and a satchel of draft picks. The question is: Who has a Nash’s chance of winning an MVP, yet could still be had for the right price?
One name has been on my mind all year: Jabari Smith Jr.
The Rockets are a fascinating collection of almost too much talent. The future will clearly feature more Jalen Green, Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore, Reed Sheppard, and, quite possibly, some big-name star they are well positioned to acquire. Meanwhile, even before all that growth and development, you know who’s fifth on the team in field goals attempted per game? Former third overall pick Jabari Smith Jr., who shoots about half as often as Jalen Green.
Still just 21, the 6-11 Smith Jr. is an elite athlete with infinite potential. All the reasons he was drafted third overall—and was long in the mix to be first—remain intact. If you have been reading TrueHoop for a long time then you know that David Thorpe is a big believer that elite ball-handling is a force multiplier for NBA players. (We spent a half-decade wondering what young Andrew Wiggins might have become.) David suggests it might take four years of focused work to go from a regular ball-handler to an NBA-elite player who can help his team by navigating through the dangerous traffic of the lane.
Smith Jr., to my eyes, is some way into those four years. I’m excited to see what comes next.
There are already components to his game that matter to winning. Smith Jr. doesn’t turn the ball over, he blocks about a shot a game. At 87 percent, he’s among the very best free-throw shooters his age in the league—and that’s the best predictor of future 3-point shooting ability. (He’s already just a hair below league average at shooting 3s.) He’s a competent defender who helps his team, but with the physical tools and youth that mean he, unlike most of his class, has the potential to Dyson Daniels into something more meaningful. And Smith Jr. has already logged long minutes learning to guard elite players all over the court.
It’s a lock that the Rockets of the future will face incredibly hard financial choices. The Rockets have a salary structure that’s totally out of whack with how they are winning. Right now Fred VanVleet is by far the richest player, but they rely mightily on the contributions from high-energy wing players like Tari Eason and Amen Thompson. Three years from now, the Rockets Alperen Şengün ($37M), Jalen Green ($36M), and Reed Sheppard ($14M) are slated to be under contract. How many massive contracts would it take to secure Smith Jr., Eason, Thompson, and either VanVleet or another point guard? And when that luxury-tax bomb goes off, will the roster have enough passing? Green, Thompson, Eason, and Smith Jr. all have low assist rates.
Great though Smith Jr. might be, Scottie Barnes (who has often in his career played guard, even point guard) has a current assist rate that’s about seven times higher. Barnes, in other words, could be a force multiplier for the considerable other talented players on the Rockets roster. While you ponder that, also note that the Rockets have won six of nine with Amen Thompson starting while Smith Jr. is out with a fractured metacarpal in his left hand. This suggests that some of the skill on the Rockets roster is duplicative.
It’s rare that Smith Jr. a) really might be that guy and b) really might be available. To me, Smith Jr. feels a bit like Harden in OKC or Shai in Los Angeles. He might really shine at his next stop. It takes guts to trade a player like Scottie Barnes, but it might look like a sound strategy in a couple of years if the return haul of picks and prospects includes Jabari Smith Jr.
I’ll admit: I’m way out over my skis here. Projecting who’ll be special is demonstrably impossible in a league where Nikola Jokić is a) the best player in the world and b) was passed over by literally every team. I don’t pretend to know what’s going to happen; I only pretend to have smart friends like David Thorpe and a StatHead account. With those inputs, my brainstorm list of potentially available potential-future MVPs would include:
If you think there’s a limit to what Amen Thompson might do, you tell him. I’m not gonna tell him.
Ausar and Amen Thompson are twins—on defense. Amen is far more productive on offense, but Ausar is also only 22. It’s too soon to say what he could become on that end. Not to be funny, but his 3-point shooting has already improved from 18 percent as a rookie to 30 percent this season. It’s nowhere good enough yet, but the trend is encouraging.
Brandon Miller just turned 22, and it’s hard for me to believe the Hornets are determined to cling to the status quo.
The Pacers’ Andrew Nembhard, for the rest of this year, is still on a super-affordable, highly tradable rookie deal. He’s a pick-and-roll master with an awesome assist-to-turnover ratio, a bona fide playoff performer, and arguably the best defender in the NBA at his position.
Jared McCain and Cason Wallace are both in situations where they’re unlikely to ever test the full limits of their abilities–McCain shares a roster with Tyrese Maxey and Wallace shares a roster with Shai.
In June 2023, David wrote that he absolutely loves the potential of Wolves forward Leonard Miller. I just checked: David still feels that way.
Bilal Coulibaly can’t legally drink, but he can fly around the court and do a little bit of everything with athleticism and size.
Shaedon Sharpe has a knack for scoring in traffic, on the break, and from 3. However, he also plays on a team where—in the tradition of Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons—it has been a long time since an elite scorer tried on defense. Who knows what Sharpe could become in the right setting?
No, it’s not likely the Hawks will trade the first overall pick a half a season into his career. But this exercise is about thinking ahead and targeting the young prospects you like. Zaccharie Risacher is on the short list of NBA players who have scored 33 points before their 20th birthday.
Dyson Daniels won’t turn 22 until March and has already become competent on offense and magical on defense—which makes him very Shai-like for his age.
Not so long ago, the very wise John Hollinger made a well-reasoned argument for Ron Holland to be considered the top overall player in the 2024 draft. The 6-7 Pistons forward is still just 19.
Alex Sarr, this year’s second overall pick, is an astounding athlete who is seven-feet tall. At age 19, he’s already making a third of his NBA 3-pointers.
Jazz forward Taylor Hendricks has battled injury. But he’s still just 21, and as David wrote in September, “[Hendricks] could become a high-level 3-point shooter and rim protector.”
Prior to last summer’s draft, a college coach told David Thorpe that Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard was the nation’s best pick-and-roll player—and the advanced stats told everyone that he was one of the nation’s best shooters. His NBA start has been rocky, but he wowed everyone in Summer League. As he’s still only 20, he’s still bursting with potential.
Thank you for reading TrueHoop!
Agree! Very difficult indeed to *accurately* predict a player’s development… going back to previous debate… if I were the Magic I would definitely trade Paolo for Giannis. They have assembled a roster that could provide complementary pieces to still compete after acquiring said superstar. And there’s no guarantee Paolo will even approach Gianni’s’ level..