Not the year to tank
The 2026 NBA draft is a trap
BYU’s AJ Dybantsa looks like he was created in a lab to win basketball games. 6-9 with a wingspan around seven feet, he moves fast and quick like an NBA forward. He dribbles like a guard, has made over 36 percent of his 3s and over 75 percent of his free throws. And he just turned 19. When I study Dybantsa on film I see Tracy McGrady, and, just to jog your memory, McGrady is a two-time scoring champion and seven time All-Star who is in basketball’s Hall of Fame.
Kansas’s Darryn Peterson might be from the same lab. A 6-6 smooth-as-silk wing who has explosive athleticism and a picture perfect jumper, Peterson is the prototypical shooting guard the NBA has coveted since the days of Michael Jordan. Everyone wants to stop him, and he scores anyway. He has a game with five made 3s, another with six. He recently earned 15 free throws in 32 minutes.
Duke’s Cameron Boozer wasn’t created in a lab, but his dad was longtime NBA starter Carlos Boozer. Cameron is already taller and more skilled than his dad ever was. A 6-10 power forward, Boozer is averaging a double-double (22 points and ten rebounds) for the top-ranked team, and he’s so efficient that he’s flirting with 60/40/80 splits. This has literally never been done before. He can run inverted pick and rolls, as the screener or the dribbler, iso big men in space, and hit an array of jumpers just like his dad. And he won’t turn 19 until after the draft.
North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson is 6-10, bouncy, and slithery like Pascal Siakam. He’s also like Chris Bosh, meaning on offense he can kill inside on the catch or the dribble while also dominating the paint defensively and on the glass. Super fast, super bouncy, super fluid, and with a motor that never quits. For a league primed to play fast as hell, he’s an ideal big man.
According to everyone I have heard from in the NBA, one of those four men, and probably one of the first two, will be the top pick in June’s NBA draft. I’ve been reading about this draft class for a year, often noting that people who rank these players and classes think this year’s draft class is as strong as last year’s.
Last year’s looking like an all-time great draft class. Cooper Flagg and V.J. Edgecombe both look to be perennial All-Stars and future Olympians. Dylan Harper and Derik Queen are deeply intriguing offensive talents, as are Tre Johnson and Ace Bailey. And Kon Kneuppel and Cedric Coward are rare rookies already making their teams better. Kon +3.6 per 100 possessions, Cedric +8 (V.J. is slightly above water for the playoff-bound Sixers).
If the 2026 draft is as good as that, it makes sense that this is a year it feels like a hell of a lot of teams are tanking. The NBA has already handed fines to two teams for sitting guys, while Adam Silver has made it very clear that tanking is a problem that has his full attention with expectations of changes to come.
After digging in, I find myself with some clarity on the smart move for every team drafting in the top four … (drumroll please)
Trade down. Or out.
