BY DAVID THORPE

Rotowire has published a giant table combining the MVP odds of 64 different players—all the way down to Clint Capela! As we have written, the road to the NBA Finals has never been more congested. MVPs tend to come from contenders, so it makes sense that Vegas oddsmakers also have a wide array of candidates.

The top of the list got me thinking:

1. Luka Dončić 

2. Giannis Antetokounmpo

3. Joel Embiid

4. Nikola Jokić

5. Kevin Durant

6. Stephen Curry

7. Ja Morant

8. Jayson Tatum

9. LeBron James

10. Kawhi Leonard

11. Devin Booker

12. Zion Williamson

13. Trae Young

14. Jimmy Butler

15. Anthony Davis

16. Karl-Anthony Towns

17. Damian Lillard

18. Anthony Edwards

19. Donovan Mitchell

20. Paul George

21. DeMar DeRozan

22. Kyrie Irving

23. Bradley Beal

24. LaMelo Ball

25. Pascal Siakam

26. Jaylen Brown

27. James Harden

28. Chris Paul

29. Brandon Ingram

30. Zach Lavine

My list would be a little different.

First of all, let’s understand that playing the best is not the same as winning the MVP. It has been much studied, but in a nutshell you need to score a ton of points, win a ton of games, and be near the top of the league in the most respected advanced metrics. Then there is the tougher-to-quantify issue of sympathy and narrative. For example, if LeBron is even close to the top of the league, I could see voters flocking to him because of his age and career accomplishments.

LeBron would also benefit from the reality that no one expects the Lakers to crush the league this year, and it helps your MVP chances if your team is surprisingly good. It’s hard to imagine Stephen Curry getting a huge bump in this race from the Warriors topping the standings, but if the Pelicans have the best record in the league, Zion Williamson will get a ton of credit for the story of the season! 

So I made up the highly scientific TrueHoop MVP score, to give my insight into how likely each candidate is to win based on:

• How likely a player is to play enough games and accrue sufficient statistics; 

• How good a player’s team will be;

• And what narrative is likely to surround a player. 

The best possible score is 100; most of the league scores a zero.

THE SUREST BET

Giannis Antetokounmpo – 100

I watch Giannis play now, including his work this past month for Team Greece in EuroBasket, and all I can think of is this scene from “The Terminator.” 

Giannis is a relentless attacker that DOES NOT STOP—or age, for that matter. The Bucks will be serious contenders again, and Giannis will likely put up numbers in line with his last four seasons, during which he has posted per-game averages over 26 points, 11 rebounds, five assists, one block, and one steal. On any contending team, those numbers will guarantee a heap of MVP votes. 

Matching those numbers will prove difficult. Even the world’s best player—mighty Nikola Jokić—fell short by 0.1 blocks per game last season (though Jokić did absolutely crush the entire league in EPM last year, according to Dunks and Threes—Giannis came in third.) In fact, according to Stathead, only one other player has averaged those numbers in any season since the NBA began tracking steals and blocks in 1973-1974: the legendary Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. In 1975-1976, Kareem averaged 27.7 points, 16.9 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.5 steals, and 4.1 blocks. That Lakers team failed to make the playoffs. Nevertheless, Kareem was crowned MVP. (Kareem accomplished that feat in his age-28 season. Guess who turns 28 in December?)

Giannis is a machine. Expect a fifth straight season of total dominance from the world’s second-best player. 

THE SWEETEST BET

Zion Williamson – 97

Can someone tell me how the average odds on this guy are like 30-to-1? Whoa. Time to get a TrueHoop office pool together!

Before he got hurt, I thought Zion could have become the MVP last season, even playing on a middling team. Images of how he looks this summer—and the Pelicans’ immense potential—only further that belief. One week into the season, I suspect my first deep look into an impact player will feature this guy. 

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Zion is the league’s biggest X-factor. He steamrolls fully engaged defenders and demolishes any half-assed help. Do not sleep on him! To think he hasn’t heard all the criticism would be foolish. 

Zion is the closest thing this world has to Giannis, only smaller (often a driving advantage) and perhaps a tad stronger. If he stays healthy this year, he’s going to put up a season for the record books. 

THE CONSENSUS FAVORITES

The question here is not “Will this guy perform?” but “Will his team—or the narrative—hold him back?”

Joel Embiid – 96

With the addition of PJ Tucker and James Harden showing off his fitness in August pickup games in LA, the Sixers have the core to take the top seed in the East. Embiid is clearly their best player, though, and he will undoubtedly continue to be so this season. 

As hard as it is to imagine him topping last season—an effort good enough to win the MVP most years—playing on a better team could get him through the door he’s been knocking on for two years now. Had Jokić not been otherworldly over the same period, Embiid would have at least one MVP trophy on his mantel. There’s a human element to this voting game that we must always keep in mind: Numbers are important, but history matters.

Luka Dončić – 94

He’s as deserving as anyone of being the early Vegas favorite; we have every reason to think he will be at least as good as last year. Playing in EuroBasket this summer will have Dončić in great shape to start the season. My only worry is that he’ll run out of steam, like Jayson Tatum did last postseason. Luckily, MVP votes will be tallied by then. 

Without Jalen Brunson, the Mavericks might have to ask Dončić to carry too much. Hopefully, playing with a better scoring big man like Christian Wood will give Dončić some rest on the offensive end. To clinch his first MVP Trophy, though, he’s going to have to defend with more urgency and purpose. That’s the only way the Mavericks are going to win enough games to keep Dončić in the hunt.

Nikola Jokić – 92

The last player to win three straight MVPs was Larry Bird in the mid-1980s. Before Bird, you have to go all the way back to Wilt Chamberlain in the late 1960s. Neither faced anywhere near the same number of truly elite competitors or potentially terrific teams that Jokić faces today, but that’s not why Jokic, the globe's best player to my eyes, is not the favorite. To win his third straight, Jokić will have to maintain his current level (possible) and all other candidates must also falter (impossible).

I struggle to see enough voters raising Jokić to that truly elite level—there are just too many deserving players who will likely have great seasons, and that narrative challenge will be tough to overcome. Either his two star teammates (Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.) return to great form, the Nuggets win a ton of games, and their performance will steal some of his thunder; or they don’t excel, the team drops in the standings, and Jokić’s MVP chances follow suit.

Jayson Tatum – 88

Tatum went all-out last season, from helping Team USA win gold in Japan to recovering from an early-season slump in time to earn All-NBA First Team honors. But then he ran out of gas in the Finals. Will the extra rest this summer make all the difference (and will that further a conversation about the number of games and minutes these guys are playing)? 

At just 24 years old, Tatum just enjoyed a career year and should continue to climb. The next step is garnering serious attention as an MVP candidate. He’s a two-way star, elite on both sides of the court, and he should be the best overall player on what Vegas now considers the NBA’s best team. Since he plays similar roles to other superstars like Giannis, LeBron, KD, and Kawhi, outplaying all of them could definitely push him to the fore. 

Anything less, even if Tatum is terrific, will give those older, more established players an edge. Remember, there’s more than science in this process.

CAN’T HAVE A CONVERSATION WITHOUT …

These three superstars, who have defined an entire generation of NBA basketball and already have a combined seven MVP trophies. 

Stephen Curry – 85

LeBron, Jordan, Magic, Bird, Kareem. That’s the list of players who have won three-or-more MVP awards since 1970. For many of us, that’s the Top Five in the 57 years I’ve been alive. Curry will never match the statistics of those greats, but his team impact—from the gravity he provides on offense that makes life far easier for every teammate to his overall leadership, culture building, and competitiveness—is on par with the greatest few players ever (perhaps even better). 

That’s why, after seeing Curry win another title and Finals MVP, some voters will be considering Curry’s place in history should he come close to duplicating what he accomplished last season: 25-plus points per game on a top-three seeded team. The Warriors are built to contend for a repeat title, and eyewitness accounts tell me Curry is already in amazing shape. If Curry leads the Warriors to a start resembling their 18-3 clip to begin 2021, he might leap to overall favorite.

LeBron James – 84

55, 67, 45, 56. That’s the number of games LeBron has played in each of his four seasons as the Lakers’ superstar. Those are ominous figures, especially when you consider that he never played fewer than 69 games in his four years back with the Cavs before heading west. We all knew these days were coming, but if anyone could defy aging, it’s LeBron. It’s fair to expect more of the same, even as a high-minutes, high-usage player who’s turning 38 this season—after all, he’s LeBron-freaking-James. He’s made a career out of exceeding expectations. 

Watch this clip: I’ll forgive you for thinking it’s footage from his mid-20s instead of someone about to enter his 20th season. That’s how lean he looks.

I think the Lakers can be a surprise top-four team in the Western Conference, but for that to happen LeBron will have to play a lot. We know he will play well if he does. Remember, before he got hurt last year, he was having an MVP-level season. Will he have the greatest season the NBA has ever seen from a 38-year-old? Very possible. Will that be enough to garner his fifth MVP award? That’s far harder to forecast, but playing that well forces other candidates to play even better if they want to win. In that case, a “tie” will likely favor the history-making narrative.

Kevin Durant – 82

A season ago, Durant joined Zion as my two favorites to win the MVP trophy. Within 48 hours of publishing that prediction, Zion was ruled out for the start of the season due to an injury that ultimately kept him off the court all year. KD’s chances petered away in line with the Nets self-destruction. A year later, the tide has turned, and three things are possible:

1. Kevin Durant puts together a monstrous offensive season.

2. The Nets end up as the top seed in the East.

3. KD voters argue he’s too historic a talent to have only one MVP season.

Given the Nets’ rocky summer, which mirrored much of their 2021-2022 journey, it’s not a sure thing this team can touch its massive potential—in fact, it’s unlikely. But in a year where so many teams are so close in overall talent and total-wins projection, seeing KD lead the Nets to a very respectable season isn’t far-fetched. Getting a good start is vital. Otherwise …

FRINGE CONTENDERS

These guys need everything to go their way to challenge the heavyweights we’ve listed thus far.

Devin Booker – 65

Vegas, as well as most of the smart people I follow and listen to, are down on Phoenix. Their postseason flameout and then their complete butchery in getting Deandre Ayton under contract has people convinced the Suns can’t do what they did last regular season: completely dominate the league. I am not among them. League parity will certainly make it tough to reach 64 wins again, but there’s no reason to think Ayton will be an issue—he got the biggest contract available to him. Chris Paul was very good and should continue to be so, though I do expect his age to show a bit. 

That’s where Booker gets to make even more progress. Turning 26 in October, Booker is firmly in his prime, and he’s coming off a career season as an All-NBA First Team guard. He also made a big jump on defense. The entire Suns team should have a “we have work to do” approach after losing a 2-0 lead to the Bucks in the 2020 NBA Finals and then getting slaughtered at home by the Mavericks in Game 7 of last year’s Western Conference semis. Booker plays with the kind of edge Paul always has—perfect for what’s needed this year. Expect Booker to get even more MVP votes after finishing fourth last year without a single first-place vote.

Karl-Anthony Towns – 24

Towns clearly knows he is an elite offensive talent, and adding Rudy Gobert to their startling lineup could push the Wolves into the top four seeds in the West. If that were to happen, Gobert would get some credit, but KAT, their best player, would get far more. If he can grow as a defender, with Gobert helping to clean things up inside (a likely scenario), KAT has the overall game to put up near-Jokić level offensive numbers—now he just has to do it. 

Paul George – 15

When the Clippers started laying the foundation for a possible superteam in the summer of 2019, most people thought George would be the Robin to Kawhi Leonard’s Batman. Over the past two seasons, George has played in just 85 regular-season games, Kawhi only 52—not exactly superhero numbers. 

George’s chances of winning seem slim, even if both play 60-plus games and he outplays Kawhi. But the Clippers are sneaky deep, though, and even with Kawhi playing 30 or so games, they could register a 50-win season. If that happens, it’s a Paul George story. If that happens, and George has a career year, winning his first MVP trophy becomes conceivable.

Pascal Siakam – 10

It’s hard to imagine this late bloomer from Cameroon would become NBA MVP, but the Raptors know they have someone special in Siakam and something potent brewing in Toronto. That’s important to note, because that’s one reason why their top players spent much of August playing together in LA. More emphatically, here we are, mid-September, and LeBron and Anthony Davis have yet to join their Laker teammates (same for Zion in New Orleans and several other “best players” on teams around the league). 

Siakam was named All-NBA Second and Third Team in two of the past three seasons, and he was a key player on the Raptors’ 2019 title-winning squad prior to those honors. His one down year was plagued by COVID and injury. Siakam will also become the primary beneficiary as Scottie Barnes evolves as a playmaker. 

If Siakam takes and makes more outside shots, he could elevate his game and statistics to MVP caliber. He recently told head coach Nick Nurse he wants to take a step forward in his career, so seeing him do even more than what he did in the second half of last season—when he was finally at full strength—would translate to top-10 status. Standing out from the crowd of elite wings will be the most difficult part, but if the Raptors can achieve a top-four finish in the East, Siakam will be getting his first-ever MVP votes.

BIG NAME, LITTLE HOPE

This section comprises former MVPs, scoring champions, and All-NBA selections who have no real shot at the trophy. There are also players who someday, and perhaps someday very soon, will enter the MVP conversation—just hard to believe it will be this year.

Trae Young – 9

Incredibly gifted on offense and a powerhouse performer in terms of overall impact, Young is just too terrible on defense to ever earn an MVP in a league filled with better two-way players. The Hawks have to hope he can become an average defensive player to win often, but even that won’t be enough to win Young an MVP.

Donovan Mitchell – 8

His defense will probably keep him from winning any MVP votes. However, if the Cavs earn a top seed, Mitchell might get some looks for All-NBA First Team.

Kawhi Leonard – 5

The simple answer here is, “Not likely.” Given how many great players will do so, there’s no reason to think Kawhi will win his first MVP trophy.

Ja Morant – 2

Morant might be the single most exciting player to watch in the league today. A Formula One race car from the future, Morant combines hints of Allen Iverson's athleticism with Dwayne Wade’s near-reckless abandon to make amazing play after amazing play. But I don’t yet see him as an MVP winner. Not yet. 

The Grizzlies are terrific; they could even be the top seed; and there’s no question he’s their best player. So, in addition to being only 23, Morant has that working in his favor. Though he finished ninth in points per game last season (27.4), he has yet to substantiate himself through advanced metrics (he finished 32nd in EPM last year, which falls below almost everyone listed above). It’s unlikely we’ll see those metrics change much this year, but with Jaren Jackson Jr. out for some time to start the season, Morant could score even more to mitigate that loss. 

At best, he can hope to do what Devin Booker did a season ago: be the best player on the best team in the league while scoring a ton of points. That earned Booker an All-NBA First Team selection (his first) and a fourth-place finish in MVP voting. Morant’s MVP potential is there, but realizing it this season is a longshot.

Anthony Davis – 1

AD was my preseason choice to win MVP prior to the 2019-2020 season, which ended with the Lakers beating the Heat in the NBA Finals. I knew LeBron would do everything it took to make AD happy and comfortable so he’d sign a new contract. LeBron led the league in assists that year—the only time he has done so—and still outshined Davis. Nothing has changed, except the expectation that chronic injuries will keep Davis from earning further All-NBA honors. If he stays healthy, that might happen, and he might even get an MVP nod—but he won’t outdo LeBron.

Jimmy Butler – 0

Even if he plays more than the 56 games per year he’s averaged as a member of the Heat, Butler will never be an MVP winner because he just won’t score enough. Miami fans shouldn't care: To my eyes, Butler can still be the best player on a championship team. 

James Harden – 0

It’s good to know he spent some time this summer playing and getting himself reasonably fit. That’s great for the Sixers. Yet, I no longer see him as the guy who, in my mind, deserved three straight MVP awards a few years back. He will have some great games, even some great weeks, though great months—especially back to back—are likely a thing of the past. 

DeMar DeRozan – 0

DeRozan was incredible last year, and there’s a shot he can be just as good this year. The Bulls, though, are unlikely to be good enough to elevate his name above the list of other candidates on better teams.

Chris Paul – 0

The Suns must be wise in how they deploy him this year to make sure he’ll be healthy in the postseason. Fewer regular-season minutes is the answer, meaning his stats are unlikely to impress MVP voters.

Bradley Beal – 0

He’s getting paid like an MVP candidate, but at no point in his career has he ever played near that level.

Damian Lillard – 0

Unfortunately, Lillard plays on a middling team and offers too little defensive impact.

Jaylen Brown – 0

I love Brown, but I cannot see a scenario where he will (A) outplay Tatum or (B) the Celtics will be good enough without Tatum for Brown to garner any meaningful votes.

Brandon Ingram – 0

See Jaylen Brown. Replace Tatum with Zion.

Anthony Edwards – 0

Edwards is exactly what the Wolves hoped he would be—and he improved a ton on both ends last year—but he is still years away from being an MVP candidate. Still, the fact that he could one day win one is significant. 

Kyrie Irving – 0

Nope. Irving lacks the defensive chops and the leadership skills to make an MVP run.

Zach Lavine – 0

LaVine needs more defensive presence and two-way skills to win the metrics battle, and the Bulls aren’t good enough to help his narrative battle.

LaMelo Ball – 0

I don’t believe in his defense or in the Hornets’ chances at being even average. 

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