Game changers

A tiny percentage of players impact winning

Second-round picks Jalen Bruson and Andrew Nembhard made our list. GREGORY SHAMUS/GETTY IMAGES

This began with a question. A friend asked: “why did the Grizzlies trade up to #11 to draft Cedric Coward when he was likely going to be there at 16?”

My answer: ”my guess is, they think he’s a game changer and they want to be sure to grab him.”

The truth is, very few players change the game for their teams. That prompted a nearly 90 minute call with Henry on Monday morning, the content of which will be detailed here over the next few stories. We walked down some dark roads as it relates to NBA teams, the draft, player development, and something we’ve started calling “The Cason Wallace Machine.” We have a plan to change the draft, player development, and the NBA.

But for now, as teams scramble to complete their rosters via trades and free agency, after completing the draft last week, let’s stick to one topic.

To me, a game changer is just that, someone who can provide extraordinary impact in winning lots of games. MVPs like Nikola Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo are obvious game changers.

We have a new graphics guy, he’s terrible. (GRAPHIC: HENRY ABBOTT)

But as we’ll explore, to me Payton Pritchard, Aaron Nesmith, and Buddy Hield are game changers too, just less obvious ones. Keep reading and I’ll explain. Winning teams need stars and these other game-changers. That’s what the draft was about–trying to find those guys. Meanwhile, I had to laugh at some of the commentary around the draft, where it sounds like everyone is about to be a star. Just sticking in the league for a few years is like climbing Everest. It’s incredibly hard to not just stick but make a team better.

On that Monday call, we each named our game changer choices from draft classes beginning in 2015 and ending in 2022. (We are not ready to judge the last two classes, though it’s obvious that at least one of those men already deserves to be in the club. In fact, I’d argue there are two, because while Amen Thompson isn’t yet the force Victor Wembanyama is, he’s a freight train that won’t be stopped.) We debated a few names, but mostly agreed on each other's selections.

You might disagree. But don’t get caught up in the names, it’s the number that matters here. Whether you think we are missing a guy or two from each draft, or perhaps we were too kind on a few of these players, the number of game changers, to our eyes, taken in the last eight drafts, is 43. That’s a little under ten percent of the nearly 500 players drafted over that time. If you want to be a stickler and point out that no one thinks second-round picks can be game changers, it’s still 41 game-changers out of 240 first-round picks and you have some explaining to do to Jalen Brunson and Andrew Nembhard.

Makes you see the draft hype a little differently, right? The question isn’t: what qualities does this guy have that will be nice in the NBA. The question is: will this guy be in the NBA? As an example: Karl-Anthony Towns was the first pick of the 2015 draft, from which we identified three more keepers: Kristaps Porziņģis, Myles Turner, and Devin Booker. That’s four game changers, compared to 14 players who are no longer in the NBA just from the first round. These are once-celebrated names like Emmanuel Mudiay, Justise Winslow, and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Once upon a time we talked about their wingspans and shooting percentage, and comps in the pro leagues. But the most accurate take was that they wouldn’t stick for one reason or another.

We have more ground to cover in this topic. For now, marinate with our game changers and please make your case for anyone we left off the list–trust me, we discussed your guy.