One should add Jimmy Butler to the sequoia category. The Bulls, who up to that point actually did know how to draft, thought that they had gotten no more than a solid rotation player with the 30th pick. And in his first couple of years, Jimmy was basically a 3 and D guy who had no handle and wasn’t much of a passer, but through sheer perseverance and determination, he improved bit by bit, year by year until he became a superstar.
This insight would seem to have a pretty big (and largely not followed) impact on team-building strategies, no?
I've always thought tanking for picks was high-risk/high-reward to the point it almost feels reckless. You get a Wemby yes, some very low percentage of the time. But there's also a LOT of lottery repeat offenders, and Coach always says rookies no nothing for quite a while, even those with promise. The Heat seem at least a step into leveraging NBA maturity as a strategy for mid-to-end roster construction. But around the league, it mostly feels like grabbing a top 10 old guy is the clearest use of this strategy, which also has a high, fall-off-the-cliff fail rate.
Always bringing it back to my Bulls....Patrick Williams. He didn't earn the minutes he got early on; 4 years at $100M is very risky now. But letting him go if he's about to flourish is just as bad.
Shai has a resilience to him that some other players do not have.
At Kentucky, he earned his way into the starting lineup, it was not a preordained position like it is for some other high profile college players.
He had to do the same on the Clippers playing for Doc who kept his young guys under close control.
These experiences have developed his resilience and willingness to put the work in to get where he wants.
In his first season without Chris on the team, Shai shot something like 50/40/80 from the field which was impressive given his previous struggles with the outside jumper. In the following season, he regressed and there were quite a few people who chalked his previous success up as being a one hit wonder.
In that season, while the Thunder were terrible, he was using the games to try out his new material and build his arsenal for when the stakes mattered.
He's put his game back together and is almost unstoppable from all three levels.
The year with Chris was huge though, Chris did an excellent job of helping Shai to understand spacing and how the lead guy should bring others into the game
I might add that Jimmy was a four year college player, so of course everyone knew he had a high floor but a low ceiling (!), a big reason he lasted until the end of the first round.
The comment below, regards tanking, is quite right. I mean its not hard to look at the top picks this decade...the top five say, and see that tanking makes little sense. Kawhi was drafted 15th. Jokic we know. But 2019...zion and ja, but then RJ Barrett, de Andre Hunter, garland, and then jarrett culver. So sort of 50/50. 2018....we know....bagley ahead of Luka. Ayton ahead of both. And pundits applauded the Ayton pick. Shai went 11th,. Someone named jerome robinson went 13th to the clippers. Chandler Hutchinson went 22nd. Whatever happened to him? The point is obvious. Some guys are good at drafting. Sam Presti comes to mind. But even the best whiff.....the spurs have recently...josh primo 12th. I remember thinking Kidd Gilchrist would be a star. That said, I told everyone scottie barnes was going to be a star. I often wonder how much GMs listen to the hype more than their scouts. And i wonder how much scouts listen to the hype. Cade Cunningham seemed ok to me. Not a future star but a high floor very good player. Was he #1? I sure didnt think so but it felt like the consensus was in, the hype was set. Cade was the #1. This year i see tyler kolek getting hyped. He's ok.....(six TOs last night) but his mistakes dont get mentioned. KJ simpson outplayed him but for a losing team. Nobody mentioned this. Hype.
One should add Jimmy Butler to the sequoia category. The Bulls, who up to that point actually did know how to draft, thought that they had gotten no more than a solid rotation player with the 30th pick. And in his first couple of years, Jimmy was basically a 3 and D guy who had no handle and wasn’t much of a passer, but through sheer perseverance and determination, he improved bit by bit, year by year until he became a superstar.
This insight would seem to have a pretty big (and largely not followed) impact on team-building strategies, no?
I've always thought tanking for picks was high-risk/high-reward to the point it almost feels reckless. You get a Wemby yes, some very low percentage of the time. But there's also a LOT of lottery repeat offenders, and Coach always says rookies no nothing for quite a while, even those with promise. The Heat seem at least a step into leveraging NBA maturity as a strategy for mid-to-end roster construction. But around the league, it mostly feels like grabbing a top 10 old guy is the clearest use of this strategy, which also has a high, fall-off-the-cliff fail rate.
Always bringing it back to my Bulls....Patrick Williams. He didn't earn the minutes he got early on; 4 years at $100M is very risky now. But letting him go if he's about to flourish is just as bad.
Shai has a resilience to him that some other players do not have.
At Kentucky, he earned his way into the starting lineup, it was not a preordained position like it is for some other high profile college players.
He had to do the same on the Clippers playing for Doc who kept his young guys under close control.
These experiences have developed his resilience and willingness to put the work in to get where he wants.
In his first season without Chris on the team, Shai shot something like 50/40/80 from the field which was impressive given his previous struggles with the outside jumper. In the following season, he regressed and there were quite a few people who chalked his previous success up as being a one hit wonder.
In that season, while the Thunder were terrible, he was using the games to try out his new material and build his arsenal for when the stakes mattered.
He's put his game back together and is almost unstoppable from all three levels.
The year with Chris was huge though, Chris did an excellent job of helping Shai to understand spacing and how the lead guy should bring others into the game
I might add that Jimmy was a four year college player, so of course everyone knew he had a high floor but a low ceiling (!), a big reason he lasted until the end of the first round.
The comment below, regards tanking, is quite right. I mean its not hard to look at the top picks this decade...the top five say, and see that tanking makes little sense. Kawhi was drafted 15th. Jokic we know. But 2019...zion and ja, but then RJ Barrett, de Andre Hunter, garland, and then jarrett culver. So sort of 50/50. 2018....we know....bagley ahead of Luka. Ayton ahead of both. And pundits applauded the Ayton pick. Shai went 11th,. Someone named jerome robinson went 13th to the clippers. Chandler Hutchinson went 22nd. Whatever happened to him? The point is obvious. Some guys are good at drafting. Sam Presti comes to mind. But even the best whiff.....the spurs have recently...josh primo 12th. I remember thinking Kidd Gilchrist would be a star. That said, I told everyone scottie barnes was going to be a star. I often wonder how much GMs listen to the hype more than their scouts. And i wonder how much scouts listen to the hype. Cade Cunningham seemed ok to me. Not a future star but a high floor very good player. Was he #1? I sure didnt think so but it felt like the consensus was in, the hype was set. Cade was the #1. This year i see tyler kolek getting hyped. He's ok.....(six TOs last night) but his mistakes dont get mentioned. KJ simpson outplayed him but for a losing team. Nobody mentioned this. Hype.