Draft Cedric Coward second overall

Thorpe sees MVP potential

Cedric Coward is a 21-year-old guard who played three seasons of NCAA basketball–two at Eastern Washington, and then last season at Washington State where he missed all but six games with a shoulder injury. TOMMY MARTINO/UNIVERSITY OF MONTANA/GETTY IMAGES

Over the last few months, David Thorpe has been telling us at TrueHoop that he would draft Washington State’s Cedric Coward second overall in the Cooper Flagg draft. Most mock drafts have Coward much lower. As Thorpe did just recently predict “Thunder in 7,” I figured we should hear him out.

Coward wowed in almost every category at the combine in Chicago. He is 6-5.25 without shoes, and he has a 7-2.25 wingspan–which is ridiculous. That’s longer than NBA centers like Yves Missi, longer than most forwards, and longer than every guard in the NBA draft this and most years. Only extraordinary wing players like Jalen Williams, OG Anunoby, and Scottie Barnes have wingspan like Coward’s. And he tested as one of the best athletes in the draft. He’s also one of the best shooters in the draft: Coward made 39 percent of his 3s over three college seasons, and 40 percent last year.

Those numbers, taken together, are arguably the most impressive in the whole draft.

But there is another stat that fixates Thorpe.

HENRY: David, you’re hung up on the fact that over three seasons of Division I NCAA basketball, Cedric Coward made 236 of his 328 2-point shots, which is 72 percent.

DAVID: That's amazing. And he's a guard. He's. A. Guard.

HENRY: Is there any way to know how that stacks up, historically?

DAVID: Are you by a computer? Can you look up what Zach Edey shot?

HENRY: Edey, the biggest man in the NCAA last year, made 64.8 percent of his 2-point shots at Purdue.

DAVID: There you go.

HENRY: What does that tell you about Cedric’s game?

DAVID: He's a really tall guard, so he's obviously got a lot of advantages. But it’s about a lot more than that. 95 percent of the players in college basketball won't make 72 percent against a coach, with a stick, in drills.

Cedric has very good feel and touch around the rim and amazing shot selection.

He only played six games this season, because of injury. But that means this 72 percent stat is missing the games when he would have been at his best. This year, he was by far the best player he's ever been.

This is where GMs can really prove themselves. I know the preferred approach is to watch a guy play 30 games and then do one or two individual workouts and all of that. But anyone can do that! How hard is it to watch a player play 15 times in person, bring him in twice in a private workout, and then evaluate his game? I don't think that's so hard.

It's hard to look at a guy that played just six games and recognize, oh yeah, he's one of the top two players in the draft.

Kyrie Irving started eight games in college, and was drafted first overall. Now he was, of course, a high, high level player going into college. But are you saying the only road to being a top NBA pick is spending several years atop the player rankings? That misses so many NBA success stories.

Do you think John Scheyer is giving away Duke scholarships like candy? The rumor was that Duke was going to pay Cedric $2+ million this year (one person told me it was closer to $3 million). Duke doesn't do that, bring in seniors with one year of eligibility. But they were doing it for Cedric. It's obvious that they realized this guy's really a super special talent. Alabama was bidding for him, Florida wanted him to replace the best player the final month of the college season, Walter Clayton Jr. Clearly his body of work and his injury didn’t scare off some of the best programs in the NCAA.

Cedric's got a lot of Cade Cunningham in him, in that he's going to be a big guard. He's longer than Cunningham, not quite as tall. I think he's probably more athletic than Cunningham. At this age, Cedric’s probably a better shooter than Cunningham was. (Cunningham was already in the NBA at this point, so it’s a not an easy comparison.)

When you watch Cedric shoot, it's as classic as you're going to get. Jump shots and 3s.

A year ago, I was asked to evaluate Cedric on his pro day, to help decide if he should stay in the draft. So I went to LA and watched a bunch of guys (including Ajay Mitchell, who has done pretty well for himself).

Just from watching that one workout, I did not think Cedric should stay in the draft, because I did not see any pop in his game. It was just an old man's game. Very fundamental. He walked like Michael Jordan, looked like him in a lot of ways too. But he didn’t play like Michael Jordan. He’s got the seven-two-and-a-half wingspan, the enormous hands, and he's got just that strut. But he was not going to impress teams without a lot more athleticism.

His agents asked me to talk to him, and I said “you play like an old man, and you're trying to play in the most athletic league in the world.”

This past May, I saw him at another pro day, a year after the first. Cedric was just hammer dunking everything. Super athletic. I asked him, “what's going on with that?” Keep in mind, anyone who's heard Cedric talk knows it sounds like you're listening to a CEO of a big company. He's got a really deep voice and a real command.

And he said, “you embarrassed me last year.”

I felt terrible.

And he said, “no, no. I mean, you embarrassed me to myself. I’d been so focused on my skill game that I forgot that I used to be an athlete.” I heard stories when he was at Eastern Washington his first year that he was making super athletic plays. I've never seen the film, but that's what some scouts have told me.

So this guy used to be a great athlete, and then he jumped 38 and a half inches at the combine, and had one of the better days all around the combine in terms of speed and athleticism.

So I'm giving you a guy, he's over 6-6 in shoes, with a seven-two-and-a-half wingspan, who's one of the best shooters in the draft. He can handle the ball like a point guard, he can play like a 3 on the wing early in his career. And he also tested as an elite athlete. Really mature, very, very sober. Oh, and he's 21 years old, still.

I was reminded of a conversation I had with an agent who asked me to watch Jalen Williams from Santa Clara, whom the agent thought was getting some late first round buzz. This was probably in late March of his draft year. I called the agent after watching five minutes of film on Synergy and said: “he's going to be a lottery pick.” The agent laughed.

And that's how I feel about Cedric. And I’m not the only one.

One NBA coach from a lottery team said to me “we have him number one on our board for who we think is going to be there,” meaning Cooper Flagg clearly wasn't on that list, and neither I think was Bailey or Harper. I'm not sure who else wasn't on their list, but still, I’m sure it wasn’t a dozen guys.

But he added “I don't think our GM will take him, because he just hasn't played enough. And his injury recovery kept him from doing full workouts.” Teams have mostly watched Cedric work out against coaches, and so that has been a part of the story here: They watched him work out against air, and they don't trust their gut.

The team that drafts Cedric will have trusted their gut because they're operating on the same bit of evidence that all the other teams are operating on.

I found out today that there is a GM who told an impeccable source of mine that they have him top five on their board. There is an executive that has multiple championships as a player and executive who said that Cedric reminds him of Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan. If Cedric had played all season, I think a lot of people would be saying the same thing.

Cedric grew up often playing as a big, and later learned to be a guard. And, I argue: a point guard. He's going to be a primary ball handler if the right team drafts him and lets him do that.

It doesn’t have to go that way. A team might say we already have an all-star point guard, so we're going to teach you how to be like a plus version of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, right? And as you develop your game with us (remember, he hasn't played competitively since November), we'll let you do more.

I've spoken to players who worked out against Cedric during last year’s pre-draft process, and they tell me he's a very, very, very special talent. His pre-draft coach said the exact same things, and that guy has coached in the G League, the Big 12 in college, and last year assisted on the team that featured AJ Dybantsa Jr., the nation’s top prep player.

So I'm not alone in being wowed by Cedric. I think he has MVP-of-the-league potential. I'm not sure Cooper Flagg has that, I'm not sure Dylan Harper has that, and I'm not sure Ace Bailey has that. I actually watched some Coward tape today, and I saw some Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. There was a baseline drive, shoulder-bump, jumper. That's an SGA specialty.

Teams are worried about drafting a guy that played very little for a school outside the mainstream. I get it. My comment has been, I don't think that's what kills your team, whiffing on a late lottery pick. I think what kills your future is passing on a superstar, and I don't think teams are factoring that risk in enough.

HENRY: In my mind, there are two lists. One is players who played very little in college going into the draft. That’s James Wiseman, Shaedon Sharpe, Kyrie Irving, Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid … there must be more.

Then the other list is: Who didn’t you draft? What stud slipped through your fingers? Who goes on that list?

DAVID: The list is long. Draymond Green and Nikola Jokić in the second round. Stephen Curry went seventh? Jalen Brunson in the second round, Jalen Williams 12th, Tyrese Haliburton 12th.

HENRY: The crazy thing is, those misses almost never haunt those GMs. Nobody ever says “Danny Ainge, how in the hell did you take Jared Sullinger over Draymond Green?” Sam Presti took Perry Jones. Even the dang Warriors took Festus Ezeli higher.

DAVID: We’ve discussed this many times. I’m a huge believer that most players’ success depends heavily on their environment. What OKC has done the past few seasons with player and human development should be studied.

Most players need that kind of environment to expose their full potential. But there are a tiny few exceptions. To me, Russell Westbrook was always going to be amazing. Kevin Durant, always amazing. I think Cedric's in that second group, that tiny bucket. He's just got so much. Even if he couldn't dribble and pass and score, he can shoot and defend. He's got a place in the NBA. We are desperate for shooters and defenders.

We just saw an example of that, obviously, with OKC.

But to a lesser extent, when Indiana got Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard back from injuries this season they went from a losing team to one of the best in the league. Their season was completely transformed by a second-round pick and someone the Celtics gave away. Because those two can shoot and defend. I don’t see how Cedric fails.

HENRY: You got my attention specifically by saying you would take him second, which is a particular number.

DAVID: I understand why Cooper Flagg goes number one. I'm not an expert on Cooper Flagg, but I've watched him play a good amount, and he's a can't-miss home run guy. Your fan base goes nuts if you don't take him. And so I understand the pressure of that. And at the very least you're going to get, I think, a multi-time all star.

After that, I've seen Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper in person, multiple times in Vegas in November. Harper had one great game. Bailey had one really good game. I have no idea if they're going to be able to figure it out and help an NBA team win.

I've asked people about Harper. One is an NBA player who knows him, and the other is an agent who did not get him, but recruited him. They raved about him as a person, so that is great. I've heard no one say anything bad about Bailey—but it’s weird how he had Sharife Cooper’s dad be his agent and kind of his manager, and won't work out for any teams. (There's no reason to think Bailey can't be great, though. I thought the Thompson twins made a mistake going to Overtime Elite, and they’re thriving.)

But there's two questions: 1. What's the upside? 2. What's the likelihood they're going to reach that upside?

I have no knowledge of Harper or Bailey, but I know Cedric's upside looks higher than everyone except maybe Cooper.

HENRY: If he’s 6-6 and plays good D, and you have to guard him on the perimeter, he looks like a lot of the players the Thunder played in the Finals. Does he fit in like that?

DAVID: Every player on the planet his age needs to develop their handle. Cedric too. If he doesn’t, he's going to be a good wing, as you describe. And if he does continue to develop his handle, which I believe he will do, he's going to be a primary scoring guard star.

And so you're betting on how hard is he going to work? That’s something a team can research. You can call everyone who ever coached him or played with him.

What we already know, though, is that Cedric knows how to play. My issue with Jalen Green has always been he doesn't know how to play, but he's super skilled, super athletic. I think it's harder to teach someone how to play than it is to teach them how to dribble, pass, and shoot. It’s hard to argue Cedric doesn't how to play when he makes 72 percent of his 2-point shots.

I don’t care who he’s scoring against. He’s reading what’s going on. He's not taking terrible shots. (Listen, if you want to argue that he has bad shot selection, well then he's the greatest shooter of all time.) He wants to take good shots. That is an advanced feel for the game, advanced understanding. So my thing was, he did that with very inferior teammates. Imagine what he's gonna be like with superior teammates early in his career. They're gonna love playing with him. He doesn't take bad shots. To me, that's a big deal.

HENRY: How does he get those shots?

DAVID: He can grab and go and transition. He's really good posting up. He'll post up in the paint and bully guards. He'll post up like Shai did at the elbows and the nail. He can just shoot over you. He's got the shot fake, one-dribble jumper. He can get up to get to the rim. He can get involved in transition as an off-ball player. And then, of course his catch and shoot is, is, you know, elite, elite level. He's probably the best 21-year-old shooter I've ever watched in drills. A machine.

That 72 percent number, though, tells me that in addition to being long and athletic, he has incredible body control. You can see him in traffic, and that stable body is a big part of making those shots. And I think it's just, it's a natural thing for him.

HENRY: He's reading those movements in a really good way.

DAVID: Jordan obviously was spectacular, because he was doing it while he was jumping explosively. Kyrie is a magician–he just had a different challenge. He doesn't jump explosively. Cedric and Jalen Willians are often compared in this way, and I get it. I just compare him to Cade more, because I think he should be the primary ball handler.

If Cedric doesn’t get that job in his first year, I understand. He'll develop some other way. He won't be the first guy. James Harden and Jalen Brunson are two classic examples of guys that started playing off the ball, and then everything transformed when they were given the ball. That very much could be Cedric’s career too, and he can be a plus player in that role.

A few years ago, I projected Evan Mobley as the best in his class, then Scottie Barnes, then Cade Cunningham. Maybe I was wrong! Cade could turn out to be the best. But who gives a fuck! They’re all fantastic! Every team with one of those guys is thrilled. At that point it’s what fits your team better and all of that, and your culture, whatever. I’m just very confident that Cedric and Cooper are going to be the class of this class over the course of their careers.

Listen, I am the same man who thought James Wiseman had to go number two in his draft. I’d argue that again, only I think the Warriors bombed his development. BOMBED. I just think Cedric has a much higher floor, and a higher ceiling.

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