David Thorpe’s contenders

After a season watching closely, 10 teams remain

BY DAVID THORPE

Are we destined for a Celtics-Nuggets Finals matchup? BARRY CHIN/THE BOSTON GLOBE VIA GETTY IMAGES

Vegas, and everyone else, thinks the Celtics are the most likely team to win the 2024 NBA title. After you do some math to calculate the percentages, and sift out the house advantage, Vegas puts that at about 31.5 percent likely. 

Then, Vegas says, it’s the Nuggets at 19.3 percent; the Clippers at 9.1; the Bucks at 7.5; and the Thunder at 5.1. The Wolves, 76ers, and Suns are tied at 3.9 percent. The Mavericks (3.2) and Lakers (2.6) round out the top 10. 

Other than the Celtics and Nuggets being the favorites, David Thorpe sees the whole thing very differently. He sees the favorite as heavier favorites, with the Celtics at 52 percent likely to win the title, and the Nuggets at 26. After that, he and Vegas don’t see eye to eye at all.

One key difference: Vegas sees the Bucks as the fourth-most likely team to win the NBA title. Even before news of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s injury, David doesn’t think the Bucks have any chance at all—a topic we will explore further another day.

Boston Celtics: 52 percent chance

All the Celtics play with an edge, but no one plays with a bigger chip on his shoulder than Derrick White. If a player scores on White, something that doesn’t happen regularly, he gets mad—and then gets a paint bucket. He’s always been overlooked, and I think there’s a driving narrative there that applies to much of the team. Maybe Holiday wants to prove that the Bucks made a mistake. It’s easy to imagine head coach Joe Mazzulla wants to prove this is his team. They all have that story—Tatum and Brown are often doubted as an elite duo; KP has been called soft.