David Thorpe predicts …
Wolves-Suns, Clippers-Mavs, Bucks-Pacers, Cavs-Magic
BY DAVID THORPE
The playoffs are different. As JJ Redick explained to podcast listeners in a discussion with former Warriors GM Bob Myers, playing the same team repeatedly is exhausting. And if a player takes a play or two off, it almost always leads to immediate problems. The playoffs demand that coaches and leaders keep their guys sharp every possession, game after game.
It’s incredibly difficult. The playoffs produce heroes for precisely that reason. But with so many close matchups in the first round, who will the heroes be?
When I assess playoff pairings, I try to start with a 5,000-foot view of each team and the matchup, searching for openings where one team can shine over the other. If both teams shoot well and play at a similar pace, then the series may well turn on who can protect the paint or cause turnovers.
One big note for any team hoping to make (and succeed in) the playoffs this year: Make sure every role player in your rotation makes at least 40 percent of their corner 3s. (In ways we’ll explore a bit more, that makes life hell for elite paint protectors like Rudy Gobert and Brook Lopez.)
I also prefer to look at teams over the final quarter of the season, which I believe to be more predictive than the whole season, because several of these teams have new rotations, and one has a new head coach. Thus, unless otherwise stated, all my numbers reference performance from March 1 to the end of the regular season. Recent trends reveal the clearest picture, and momentum can extend or end a team’s season.
Even before Giannis’ injury, for instance, the Bucks were looking like an old team with new problems to solve every game. MVP candidate Luka Dončić and the Mavericks are moving at Mach speed, but they face a Kawhi-sized wall fortified by James Harden and Paul George. The Cavs, seemingly fighting for their existence, will have to outwit the Magic’s suffocating defense. And the Wolves are hoping that Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns will score enough to overcome a Suns team they’ve yet to beat this season.
(3) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. (6) Phoenix Suns
Key stats since March 1:
Both teams 14-9
Wolves 6th in Defensive Rating, Suns 14th
Suns 12th in pace, Wolves 22nd
Suns 3-0 against Wolves this season
These teams have been two of the league’s best since March 1. However, the Suns are averaging 15 turnovers a game since that date, and they’re 24th in points allowed off turnovers. The Wolves are third-best in converting turnovers into points. That will put the Suns’ sloppy execution under a spotlight.
Of course, the Wolves looked like they wanted to win last Sunday and failed miserably. The Suns had just seven turnovers, Bradley Beal was exquisite, and the Suns picked up a quality road win and dropped the Wolves to the third seed. Whatever the Wolves discussed before Sunday’s game needs to go into the trash. The Suns got a real glimpse of what this offense is capable of when they execute well. Doing so against the elite defense they now face should bolster their sense of belief—no small thing.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to TrueHoop to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.