Damian Lillard and Ja Morant can’t win playing together
Did you watch the playoffs?
We just saw a masterclass in the NBA’s new defensive intensity. Amazingly, almost every rotation player from the Thunder, Spurs, and Knicks is either an excellent defender or Jalen Brunson (who’s at the very least a feisty one).
There doesn’t seem to be a way to contend with two poor defenders on the floor at the same time.
Which is why it’s almost impossible to imagine the Blazers will be any good with Damian Lillard and Ja Morant sharing the court.
POOR DONOVAN CLINGAN
Remember back to Rudy Gobert’s defensive prime with the Jazz? One season they were literally the best team in the league, and had Dynasty Warriors net ratings. But in the playoffs, one of the reasons why they lost and ultimately traded Rudy was because the average person thought Rudy couldn’t play in the modern NBA. He didn’t necessarily take advantage of what he could do offensively when he had switches. But the bigger thing was they always saw him as being less effective in the postseason than he was the regular season.
Since the trade, the Jazz have been in the lottery while Rudy goes on long playoff runs just about every year. It’s important to get the lesson.
What was really happening was the Jazz had a bunch of below average on-ball defenders at the same time. Rudy had to protect the 3-point line to some degree (because you can’t just not help in some situations) but he also was assigned to protect the rim. It’s an impossible assignment.
All of which is to say: poor Donovan Clingan.
If the Blazers are really going to have those two guys on the court, Donovan is going to run himself ragged protecting the rim with the free flow of driving guys who have no problem getting past the point of attack.
One of the problems with guys that have a hot motor defensively at the center is they’re overeager to help. That problem can be mitigated when they’re just not needed as much to help. Here’s where we’ll see how dedicated Ja Morant and Damian Lillard are to winning. If they decide to really compete defensively, they can do a lot to make life easier for Clingan.
Remember my rule has kind of evolved from: you have to be great defending on the ball to simply play really hard. Even if you can’t execute some of the strategies of dealing with ball screens, getting over a screen, being physical at the point of attack, you can still help with purpose and physicality. Stay connected and race to your next help. We could talk a ton about the particulars, but essentially, if someone helps on Dame’s driver, leaving a shooter open in the corner, Donovan will probably run to that shooter if Dame or Ja doesn’t beat him to it. It’s good for the Blazers to keep Donovan from having to do everything, to cover so much ground, to draw so many fouls, to leave the paint open. That doesn’t take an elite defender, it takes a committed one.
BULLIED
Imagine what it’ll be like against Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle. Damian Lillard and Ja Morant are going to get bullied like crazy. Denver, with all their cutting. The Blazer guards will need help and then it’s up to Jokić who’s incredible passing to whoever’s open.
They’ll suffer against almost every team. I mean, they’ll be fine against the Kings when Darius Acuff Jr. is still a rookie. But there aren’t many teams like that.
Those guys are small. Big wings can bully them, the league’s many talented isolation scorers too. They’ll both have a very tough time doing anything against them–which means other people have to be triggered to help early.
And that opens another vulnerability: teams that run a lot of actions. The way the Pacers stack actions, the way the Heat aren’t setting many ball screens, just a lot of movement and cutting. More teams are starting to do that now. It means that, as a defender, you can’t stand still. You’re always in movement and you’re always having to make decisions. That’s hard on players like Dame and Ja who don’t see the defensive floor so well. They won’t have much time to process decisions. You always have to be head on a swivel, feet ready to move all the time. They’re going to be exposed.
DEFENSIVE SCHEMING
The Blazers have Clingan, Camara, we’ll see if they have Jrue Holiday. And they have a coaching staff. I don’t believe that a player’s defensive EPM is his destiny. We’ve seen all kinds of players—Ray Allen in Boston—go from not so great on D to part of a great defensive team. And so the question for the coaching staff becomes can we get total buy-in? That includes a willingness to compete your ass off, you’re not running to close outs, you’re racing. Or if the strategy is do not overrun on your contest, don’t overrun. If you do your job fully and it fails, either the strategy wasn’t good enough, or the talent wasn’t able to execute the strategy. But so-so defenders can go crazy hard and follow the plan and be part of an OK defense.
The problem: it’s a hell of an ask for a defensive coordinator to come up with a top-fifteen defensive strategy if both Ja and Dame are on the court frequently at the same time. I don’t think it’s possible. You could put Hakeem Olajuwon, Michael Cooper, and Andre Iguodala out there with them, and there’s no guarantee that’s a top-fifteen NBA defense.
THE SCOOT STAGGER
How would you optimize a roster like this? My first thought is to stagger Dame and Ja, and Clingan and Robert Williams. They can say we have 48 minutes with an experienced scoring guard and a rim protecting center. That’s super valuable, and a decent starting point when those other spots are filled by players like Deni Avdija, Jrue Holiday, and Toumani Camara.
Jalen Brunson just made the point: you don’t necessarily have to be a point guard or a shooting guard. You want to be a guard. This is where Scoot Henderson’s continued development is essential to the Blazers’ future.
Other teams will hunt mismatches against Dame or Ja, but that doesn’t mean the Blazers have to allow it. You have to be really physical with those screens. You have to have bigs that can help and recover. You have to have guards willing to fight like motherfuckers to get over or under, depending on who you’re guarding. Multiple screens at the point of attack that requires a lot of toughness and energy. Because of his age and athleticism, Scoot is the Blazers guard who will have to get good at that. It’s a lot of work. But it’s fantastic for his development to get a steady diet of guarding the other team’s best player.
Which is why I’d stagger Ja and Dame, and let them share the court with Scoot. It’s better for Dame at his age and his injury history. It’s better for Ja with his injury history.
You’d have to sit them both down at the beginning of the season and say you’re not going to play enough to be an All-star, but there’s a chance to play 70 games, each of you, and we can win more that way.
We’ll see how he plays this upcoming season, but when we last saw him, Ja doesn’t really have an off-the-ball gravity to draw defenders anymore, but hopefully he can drive and kick. So when he’s in with Ja, Scoot’s the shooting guard. And then when Dame’s in the game, Scoot’s the point guard, hopefully getting to the rim, taking advantage of space Dame creates. Scoot could get 16 minutes a game at each position, and that’d be great for his long-term development.
POOR DENI
Deni Avdija is 25. He’s entering his full prime. You cannot script a more perfect player for the modern NBA. He’s a big size. He’s a very physical driver. He’s also really fucking fast, and he plays with power. This is a physical downhill guy who is a warrior. He plays hard. It’s perfect for this league. No surprise that he’s not just their best player, but an absolute deserving All-Star. Literally one of the twenty best players in the world, with chances to grow.
And this is how you thank him? You bring in a lame duck coach on a make-good contract? What power does this guy have to direct a successful team around Deni?
When LeBron and Wade and Bosh were struggling early on in Miami, Pat Riley brought them in and said a lot of things can change. But one thing that won’t change is who our head coach is. Never come into this office, that was the report, never come into this office and tell me to change coaches. It’s not happening. Then they went to four straight Finals and won two.
That can’t happen in Portland.
NO TASK FOR A LAME DUCK
Hypothetically, if Damian Lillard and his agent don’t like Micah Nori yelling about defense, by midseason, Lillard can just go to Tom Dundon and say “who cares if you fire him halfway through the year, hire another guy for a million bucks and you’re still expending far fewer resources for that position than anyone in the league has for a decade or more.” It’s maybe twenty years since someone’s been paid so little.
At your work, why would you listen to a CEO who’s making not just less money than you, but has less years in their contract than yours? Micah Nori is in a battle for control, and he has no arms. They cut his arms off and claimed it was a harmless act of good business.
Micah Nori might be thinking right now: “How am I going to get Ja Morant and Dame Lillard to care about defense?” And there’s a world where Nori says, “You know what, I’m not going to fight it, I’m going to just try to get Ja and Dame on my side, so I can get a longer deal. I’ve got to get my foot in the door, I can’t lose this. Whatever you want to do, guys, I’m never going to talk about defense. Let’s just outscore people and have fun, and they’ll come up with some strategies that tries to hide them as best as they can.
The Blazers have been here before. Under Terry Stotts, Lillard shared a backcourt with poor defenders C.J. McCollum and then Anfernee Simons. The team routinely finished in the league’s bottom ten in defensive measures, had one memorable playoff run, but mostly underperformed.
I don’t know how it works in Tom’s other companies, but it looks to me like in the NBA he’s empowered the wrong people in the wrong way. The stars are overpaid and not everybody else.
Charlotte just did the opposite. In fact, Charlotte could have done this deal for Ja too. But instead, they’re willing to get a little worse this year to get much better going forward. OKC has always resisted short-term thinking. You build and build until you’re ready to build to a championship. The Blazers, to me, either lack a strategic plan, or they don’t have a good one.
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