Betting markets on Grizzlies vs. Warriors

One team wants to play fast

BY JEFF FOGLE

Stephen Curry and Ja Morant faced off January 11 in Memphis. Curry made just two of nine 3s as the Warriors shot 36 percent from behind the arc. The teams played fast—at a pace of 105. The Grizzlies won 116-108. JUSTIN FORD/GETTY IMAGES

Warriors vs. Grizzlies presents a challenge for oddsmakers. Golden State looked like a serious championship threat throughout its 4-1 series rout of the Nuggets—even while Stephen Curry was on the mend from a sprained foot.

If the Warriors continue making 3s at high volume, they’ll be tough to take out. Against Denver, they shot better than 40 percent as a team in four of five games, and won every one of them. In Game 4, they only managed to shoot 35 percent, and it was the Warriors’ only loss. 

Shooting 40 percent on treys is like shooting 60 percent on deuces. As Curry heals, the market will be even more tempted to price the Warriors like a juggernaut. 

That said, the Grizzlies have been disrespected by the markets for months. They led the NBA (substantially) with a 52-29-1 record against the spread. Splitting six games against the spread with the Timberwolves in the first round took that to 55-32-1 for the season, an astonishing 63.2 percent cash rate. Memphis was a virtual ATM machine for analysts who recognized the Grizzlies’ depth of talent and bet accordingly.