A mere six contenders
The Knicks are on the championship bus
At TrueHoop we like to talk about the championship bus. When the season begins, almost every team is on board as it rumbles along toward the Finals. But things happen. Stars get hurt. Strategies are exposed. Trades, tanking … there are many ways to get off the bus. Over time, the league is winnowed down. With five weeks to go in the regular season, David Thorpe sees a mere six teams remaining.
The Spurs rolled into Madison Square Garden last week on an 11-game win streak. There was talk that perhaps this team could pull off an NBA magic carpet ride: going from the lottery to the championship in one season. They have a notable habit of beating the Thunder, and in that stretch the Spurs had beaten seven likely postseason teams (nine by double digits), and the Spurs never scored less than 110 points.
The prior time the Knicks and Spurs played, Victor Wembanyama had 42 points early in the fourth quarter. It wasn’t at all clear that the Knicks knew how to guard him.
However, coming into that game, the Knicks had recently discovered their defensive footing, holding their previous three opponents under 100 points.
What was the greater force? The Spurs new-found invincibility, or the Knicks’ newfound defense?
The Spurs’ streak ended quickly and resoundingly. The Spurs only managed 89 points all night; the Knicks had that with eight minutes left. Victor needed nine free throw attempts to get to 25 points; the Spurs were outscored by 15 during Wemby’s 34 minutes.
After the game, that 11 game streak was toast, but the Knicks’ defensive streak had rung up another quality win. The mighty Thunder needed six 3-pointers from Chet Holmgren to get to 103 and eke out a win last night.
My main takeaway: the Knicks D is real and that matters as we try to figure out which teams are real contenders.
Let’s peek at how they do it.
Fast feet
The Knicks’ big men are moving their feet to stay in front of drivers. I teach defenders something called an “escape slide.” It’s easy to slide to stay in front of slow drivers, a half-arm’s length away. But against faster drivers the game isn’t to win a race to a certain spot. Instead, we need to slide at a deeper angle, towards the rim. It invites the pull-up jumper, which is what we want. It’s easy for nimble defenders to do this, harder for bigs.
Here we see the Knicks two centers sliding to stay in front of the magician Victor Wembanyama, who is on the road to being the best player in the world, but is not currently a fast-twitch driver.
Both Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson escape slide at the perfect angle, meeting and cutting off Wembanyama exactly where he was hoping to go. These plays show two of the seven turnovers Wemby had in the game.
Getting back
In a real sense, this has to do with fast feet too, and a lot of heart (or Hart!). The Knicks, despite those Wemby turnovers, are not winning on defense because of a ton of steals, blocks, or forced turnovers. They are average in those categories in these last 14 games. But they are top five in being stingy in letting opponents score in transition. Their effort to get back and force offenses to face five defenders is a big key.
Ball security
No team gives up fewer points off turnovers than the Knicks, who are third best in fewest turnovers. When they do turn it over, they race back and match up beautifully.
They own the defensive boards and induce lots of missing
The Knicks have been a top-six defensive rebounding team all season and that is a big part of their identity. Their big men, and everyone except Jalen Brunson, stay in front of their own assignments with toughness, size, and length for their position. New York’s opponents are fourth worst in field goal percentage at, 44.4 percent. That number is lower than it is for the season. Is it luck? Maybe so. But the math adds up.
The strategy
Limit points off turnovers and second chance points and the game becomes a shooting contest. That is a major advantage for the Knicks. KAT has always been an elite shooter, best in class historically. But he is still a special floor spacer. Jalen Brunson is a second box killer and is making 38 percent of his 3s. Mikal Bridges is making shots at a high level from all three levels, while OG Anunoby has to be accounted for at the rim and behind 3. Teams could leave Josh Hart alone the last two seasons but not this year, his 38 percent from 3 is a career best. And Landry Shamet has emerged as legit and scary threat off the bench, hitting over 41 percent of his 3s and was recently seen screaming after a late clutch 3 “I’m Fucking Back!!!!”
Turning games into “we can make shots better than you can four games in seven” is a risky playoff plan. Especially when KAT is having an off-year shooting the ball.
I think I know why. It is a common thing to see players struggle to shoot when they are suddenly competing at a higher level. He’s probably going to end up with a career year as a defender, at an age where that is not common. His work on the glass is special stuff too. His personal “wi-fi” system is likely a bit overwhelmed with the heavy load he’s taking on on defense. It’s entirely possible that he adjusts by season’s end and improves as a shooter come April. What a huge difference that would make.
The Knicks have a risky strategy, but arguably so does every contender. The Thunder depend on points off turnovers to run teams into the ground. The Knicks could never do that. Everyone is a grizzled vet who has been through some serious hoops wars. The Pistons are younger, faster, and more athletic, and will have home court advantage should these two meet in the conference finals, where the Knicks died a year ago against the Pacers. The last time Detroit won a playoff series was 2008, their star Cade Cunningham was not yet seven. Their top three players have won two playoff games in their careers.
The Celtics are just as dependent on shooting, mostly 3s. Philly has no shot unless Joel Embiid can play 90 percent of the 76ers’ games. And James Harden needs to be near elite to push the Cavs to the NBA Finals. I believe Boston is an amazing story, Embiid has been an inspiration when he plays, and Harden is a truly magical player to my eyes. But to suggest that the Knicks path to winning is riskier than those three things happening makes little sense to me.
The Knicks are not the favorites, but they have been admitted to a nice seat on our title bus. They have a chance to play into June, provided they continue this strategy of forcing contested shots–it’s not unique, but it has bite when executed well and you can rebound. It’s a tall order to out-shoot the Knicks.
As of March 5, these are the teams that I see remaining aboard TrueHoop’s championship bus with the Knicks:
