A dozen observations before NBA Finals Game 3
Two close games have gone the Knicks' way
1. KNICKS WIN GAME 3, PROBABLY
The emotional IQ, toughness, and pragmatism of the Knicks (or at least the ones not named Rick Brunson, more on that below) should be studied. The Spurs are much better than any team New York has played so far in the playoffs, and the Knicks met San Antonio’s level of intensity the first second one of Game 1.
When I watch the Knicks I see brilliant problem solving. And, rare over the last decade in the NBA, a point guard and center who can both be elite scoring in the paint or behind the 3-point line. Mix in the guys they have that play defense with passion and purpose, and the willingness of every player to leave their egos at the door, and you have a hell of a team.
I often get asked who I think’s going to win a particular game, not just a series. The more I know about basketball, the more aware I am of the almost uncountable variables affecting every possession, every quarter, every game. There is no script. There are so many ways for the better team to lose.
Had Victor made that last shot, the media would have pulled apart every little Knick play that didn’t work in the fourth quarter.
The games can be beautiful, often they are, typically very hard fought when you get to the playoffs. But they’re still very messy, and riddled with errors, also. Predicting means entering a stew of percentages and probabilities and not assurances and guarantees.
I said on our Thursday live video that I would not be surprised at all if New York won Game 2. I predicted the Knicks would win the series.
Barring injury, I’d guess the Knicks will win every game of the series.
But of course the Spurs have an incredible opportunity and these games have been close.
2. COACHING THE SPURS DOWN 0-2
In the conference finals, Cavs coach Kenny Atkinson caught hell when he said that his Cavs, analytically, won two of the first three against the Knicks. Obviously his point was that his team should feel like there is hope for Game 4, because the Cavs played well for most of two of those three games. The job of a coach is to motivate.
The Spurs coaching staff might not say it publicly, but they’re in the same boat. The internet has a lot of New York chatter like “we’re not going back to Texas” or “ the Spurs will melt in the Garden.” Spurs coaches and players know this series easily could be 2-0 in their favor.
I suspect Mitch Johnson and staff are telling the Spurs can walk proudly into Madison Square Garden Monday night with genuine confidence, knowing there are simple changes they can make to flip the script so that the Spurs can be the team that hangs around and takes a lead late. The Spurs can be the team that watches the home team fail to make a big shot or a big play in the final possessions.
And then it’s 1-2 series with the Knicks feeling all the pressure. That’s not a hard sell. The players know how close they’ve been.
San Antonio coaches and players will be thinking:
We can do better on the defensive glass.
Maybe we should play our bench more so Wemby doesn’t get so tired late.
We need to get Wemby more touches in the paint all game long.
On that last point, Victor has got to fight for more paint touches off the catch—and not the dribble. His teammates have to help create that, with their voice and with their purpose. Play more inside out and you might get the Knicks’ big men in foul trouble again. Having Victor down there will allow for more potential offensive rebounds because he draws a ton of attention which lets Spurs guards dive in and snag misses like they did in Game 1.
It isn’t a smart strategy to assume any team will shoot well on the road, which means even more offensive rebounds are in the mix for the Spurs in Game 3. If the Spurs can snag them, it can be a great way to demoralize the Knicks and their fans.
3. KNICKS CAN LOSE AT HOME
Crowds don’t win games. Home courts don’t win games. Buildings don’t win games. Players do. Coaches too. Tough though MSG can be, the Pacers have won tough playoff games there each of the last two years. They destroyed the exhausted Knicks in Madison Square Garden in Game 7.
That’s why no self-respecting Knicks player or staff member is thinking about anything but recovering today and tomorrow and finding a way to win by at least one point on Monday. That’s all they’re thinking about.
4. VICTOR TOO TIRED
Victor is wearing himself out trying to guard every Knick all over the court. It’s an impossible task. But the Spurs have been close in both games. He doesn’t have to dramatically change, some tweaks will do.
Maybe show a less on shooters, maybe stay home in rotation and let someone race to the open man, maybe don’t try to block every shot. The Spurs need a little more of his energy owning space around the rim. When OG dunked on him, he did a great job of using physicality and length. But also: Victor jumped two inches. The Spurs need his athleticism in all four quarters.
Victor’s final moment turnover was a result of exhaustion and inexperience.
